Match Info

Date: 15 September 2022, Thursday

Location: Toto Turner Stadium (Be'er Sheva)

Referee: Collum W. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Hapoel Beer Sheva		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	5	3.75	1.7
	4.4	3.9	1.7
	4.4	3.95	1.77
	4.5	3.8	1.71
	4.68	3.96	1.72
	4.5	3.88	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↓ (4.98)	3.87 ↓ (4.2)	1.72 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hapoel Beer Sheva
20.6%

Draw
24.4%

Villarreal
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

22%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

21.6%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hapoel Beer Sheva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hapoel Beer Sheva than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.9%	12.5%	73.6%

Hapoel Beer Sheva - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Hapoel Beer Sheva will win (votes: 10 - 13.9%). Villarreal will win (votes: 53 - 73.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 63.4% – 83.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Hapoel Beer Sheva has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (4%), has a chance of 2nd (33%), has a chance of 3rd (35%), has a chance of round of 16 (18%), has a small chance of qtrs (7%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Villarreal has currently - 3, has a good chance of 1st (90%), has a small chance of 2nd (8%), has a very small chance of 3rd (2%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (96%), has a good chance of qtrs (76%), has a good chance of semis (57%), has a chance of final (41%), has a chance of win league (26%).

This event has quality 60, importance 38, match rating 49. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Hapoel Beer Sheva is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Villarreal is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Villarreal is a favorite.

There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Knee Injury) Moreno A. (Knee Injury) Moreno G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Reina P. (Injury) Trigueros M. (Thigh Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hapoel Beer Sheva
Israeli Ligat haAl
11.09.22	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Austria Wien - Hapoel Beer Sheva	0:0 ✺
Israeli Ligat haAl
03.09.22	Hapoel Beer Sheva - Maccabi Haifa	1:2 ✺
31.08.22	Hapoel Beer Sheva - MS Ashdod	1:2 ✺
28.08.22	Beitar Jerusalem - Hapoel Beer Sheva	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTLLW
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
11.09.22	Betis - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Villarreal - Lech Poznań	4:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.22	Villarreal - Elche	4:0 ✺
28.08.22	Getafe - Villarreal	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.08.22	Hajduk Split - Villarreal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWTW

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