Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 27

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Lorenz J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Pärnu Vaprus		Harju JK Laagri

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.50	2.45
	2.42	3.45	2.52
	2.49	3.75	2.58
	2.38	3.8	2.59	Watch
	2.4	3.6	2.4
	2.38	3.62	2.42	Watch
	2.36	3.55	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.68)	3.61 ↓ (3.7)	2.5 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus
38.2%

Draw
25.3%

Harju JK Laagri
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

24.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

25%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Harju JK Laagri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harju JK Laagri than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Harju JK Laagri could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Harju will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (C) 43. Seppik M. 28. Lipp M. 5. Aer S. 90. Sild J. 8. Pajo T. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S. 14. Orm R. 17. Kapper S. 7. Vallik V.	1. Vainula J. (G) 3. Kaevats A. 88. Seck M. 20. Vaher A. 23. Rudenko Daniil 66. Roomussaar K. 18. Bah I. 19. Binate A. 10. Assale Y. E. 9. Eerme K. 16. Kriis K. (C)
Substitutes
64. Allas J. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 74. Kutsar K. 66. Nomm U. 3. Rand K. 97. Siigur R. 26. Vahemets O. 1. Vainu H. (G) 4. Villota M.	47. Ennuste K. 41. Kajari E. 17. Kelement M. 32. Kerge S. 22. Kesa M. 11. Kose A. 24. Laur K. 79. Meesit R. (G) 6. Palutaja H. 7. Reimaa R. 95. Suppi S.
Coaches
Prins I.	Nuuma L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Orm R. ⚽,
27', Viidas S. ↓, Kauber K. ↑,
42', 2 - 0, Sild J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Roomussaar K. ↓, Kelement M. ↑,
51', 3 - 0, Seck M. (Own goal),
57', Kriis K. 🟨,
64', Bah I. ↓, Palutaja H. ↑,
64', Binate A. ↓, Kerge S. ↑,
71', Assale Y. E. ↓, Laur K. ↑,
77', Kauber K. 🟨,
78', 3 - 1, Kerge S. ⚽,
78', Kriis K. ↓, Ennuste K. ↑,
80', 3 - 2, Laur K. ⚽,
80', Orm R. ↓, Nomm U. ↑,
80', 🟨,
84', Nomm O. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 3.

Pärnu Vaprus is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Harju has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Harju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40:47	-7	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34

Last Results with these Odds

Pärnu Vaprus - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.03%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
05.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
02.09.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
29.08.26	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTLL
- Harju JK Laagri
Estonian Meistriliiga
06.09.26	Harju JK Laagri - Tammeka	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Nõmme United - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Harju JK Laagri - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
07.08.26	Kuressaare - Harju JK Laagri	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
16.05.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
04.04.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	0:2
27.09.25	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	1:2
25.07.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	2:2
26.04.25	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	0:1
05.04.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	1:1
27.10.23	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	0:0

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