Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Hartberg (Hartberg)

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
World	Onefootball


	Hartberg		Swarovski Tirol

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.78	3.35	2.42
	2.91	3.5	2.5
	2.71	3.48	2.52	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.4
	2.82	3.58	2.46	Watch
	2.83	3.33	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.1)	3.43 ↑ (3.25)	2.44 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartberg
33.9%

Draw
27.5%

Swarovski Tirol
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

29.7%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hartberg's form might have worsened.

Swarovski Tirol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swarovski Tirol's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartberg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swarovski Tirol than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swarovski Tirol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Hartberg - Swarovski Tirol Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Hartberg will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Swarovski Tirol will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartberg: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Helac A. (G) 95. Kovacevic D. 19. Spendlhofer L. 6. Coulibaly H. 3. Vincze D. 23. Kainz T. 5. Diarra Y. 4. Markus B. 22. Hoffmann M. 7. Havel E. 28. Heil J. (C)	40. Stejskal A. (G) 23. Boras M. 5. Lawrence J. 14. Kubatta D. 17. Naschberger J. 30. Taferner M. 4. Muller V. (C) 20. Bockle B. 8. Baden Frederiksen N. 37. Wels M. 9. Ola-Adebomi A.
Substitutes
61. Aziz M. 79. Drew J. 11. Fillafer M. 30. Fridrikas L. 16. Golles J. 8. Halwachs J. 21. Maric L. (G) 9. Mijic P. 10. Prokop D.	11. Anselm T. 15. Bambara M. 13. Eckmayr A. (G) 28. Geris T. 3. Gugganig D. 16. Hinterseer L. 19. Huetz C. 27. Jaunegg D. 21. Votter Y.
Coaches
Schmid M.	Semlic P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Taferner M. ↓, Votter Y. ↑,
45+1', Ola-Adebomi A. 🟨,
45+6', Votter Y. 🟨,
45+6', Kubatta D. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Wels M. ⚽, Baden Frederiksen N. (A),
58', Ola-Adebomi A. ↓, Anselm T. ↑,
61', Coulibaly H. 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Heil J. ⚽, Diarra Y. (A),
65', Kainz T. ↓, Prokop D. ↑,
66', Hoffmann M. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
66', Kovacevic D. ↓, Drew J. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Havel E. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Diarra Y. 🟨,
77', Baden Frederiksen N. ↓, Hinterseer L. ↑,
88', Havel E. ↓, Mijic P. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 3.

Hartberg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Swarovski Tirol has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Swarovski Tirol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hartberg has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hartberg: Drew J. (Back Injury) Hulsmann T. (Yellow Cards) Hulsmann T. (Red Card) Komposch P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Swarovski Tirol: Butler Q. (Knee Injury) Sulzbacher L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:28. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartberg won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSV Hartberg
Austrian Bundesliga
06.12.25	Hartberg - LASK Linz	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Hartberg - Ried	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Wolfsberger - Hartberg	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Hartberg - Austria Wien	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TLWWW
- WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austrian Bundesliga
07.12.25	Swarovski Tirol - Rheindorf Altach	0:3 ✺
03.12.25	Sturm Graz - Swarovski Tirol	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Austria Wien - Swarovski Tirol	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	2:3 ✺
09.11.25	Swarovski Tirol - Rapid Wien	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
02.08.25	Swarovski Tirol - Hartberg	4:2
17.05.25	Hartberg - Swarovski Tirol	3:2
05.04.25	Swarovski Tirol - Hartberg	1:3
09.02.25	Swarovski Tirol - Hartberg	0:0
26.09.24	Hartberg - Swarovski Tirol	1:0
03.03.24	Swarovski Tirol - Hartberg	1:0
07.10.23	Hartberg - Swarovski Tirol	3:0

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