Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Salzburg)

Referee: Untergasser A. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Germany	Sky Go Germany
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
World	Onefootball


	Red Bull Salzburg		Swarovski Tirol

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.45	6.9
	1.53	4.51	5.64
	1.51	4.49	5.75	Watch
	1.47	4.33	6.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.51)	4.46 ↓ (4.49)	6.24 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Salzburg
63.8%

Draw
21.1%

Swarovski Tirol
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

21%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

20.3%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Swarovski Tirol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swarovski Tirol than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Salzburg (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Salzburg (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Salzburg (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Salzburg (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Red Bull Salzburg will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Red Bull Salzburg will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schlager A. (C) 22. Lainer S. 44. Schuster J. 2. Rasmussen J. 3. Terzic A. 49. Yeo M. K. 5. Diabate S. 14. Kjaergaard M. 20. Baidoo E. 11. Vertessen Y. 27. Alajbegovic K.	40. Stejskal A. (G) 23. Boras M. 5. Lawrence J. 14. Kubatta D. 17. Naschberger J. 30. Taferner M. 4. Muller V. (C) 20. Bockle B. 8. Baden Frederiksen N. 10. Sabitzer T. 37. Wels M.
Substitutes
18. Bidstrup M. 7. Bischoff C. 23. Gadou J. 92. Hamzic S. (G) 8. Kitano S. 13. Kratzig F. 21. Ratkov P. 38. Sulzbacher V. 37. Trummer T.	11. Anselm T. 13. Eckmayr A. (G) 28. Geris T. 3. Gugganig D. 16. Hinterseer L. 19. Huetz C. 27. Jaunegg D. 9. Ola-Adebomi A. 21. Votter Y.
Coaches
Letsch T.	Semlic P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', Alajbegovic K. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Yeo M. K. ⚽, Terzic A. (A),
26', Muller V. 🟨,
37', 2 - 0, Baidoo E. ⚽, Yeo M. K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
60', Sabitzer T. ↓, Ola-Adebomi A. ↑,
61', Alajbegovic K. ↓, Bidstrup M. ↑,
61', Baidoo E. ↓, Bischoff C. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Baden Frederiksen N. ⚽, Ola-Adebomi A. (A),
71', Baden Frederiksen N. 🟨,
74', 2 - 2, Lawrence J. ⚽, Kubatta D. (A),
78', Bockle B. 🟨,
78', Yeo M. K. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
78', Vertessen Y. ↓, Ratkov P. ↑,
80', Taferner M. 🟨,
86', Wels M. ↓, Votter Y. ↑,
86', Baden Frederiksen N. ↓, Hinterseer L. ↑,
87', Taferner M. 🟨,
90+4', Diabate S. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 3, Muller V. (Pen),
90+6', Schlager A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Salzburg won 3.

Salzburg is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Swarovski Tirol's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Salzburg is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Salzburg: Kawamura T. (Knee Injury) Konate K. (Knee Injury) Mellberg J. (Knee Injury) Omoregie J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Onisiwo K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Swarovski Tirol: Butler Q. (Knee Injury) Hinterseer L. (Red Card) Sulzbacher L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Swarovski Tirol: Baden Frederiksen N. (Injury)

We predict that Salzburg will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Salzburg won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 54:15. (average 2.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Salzburg won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:6. (average 3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
09.11.25	Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
02.11.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Ried	4:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
30.10.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	3:1 ET ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
26.10.25	Austria Wien - Red Bull Salzburg	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWWW
- WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austrian Bundesliga
09.11.25	Swarovski Tirol - Rapid Wien	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Wolfsberger - Swarovski Tirol	0:0 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
30.10.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	3:1 ET ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
25.10.25	Swarovski Tirol - Blau-Weiss Linz	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Swarovski Tirol - Austria Wien	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian OFB Cup
30.10.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	3:1 ET
Austrian Bundesliga
28.09.25	Swarovski Tirol - Red Bull Salzburg	1:2
15.02.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	1:1
Austrian OFB Cup
30.10.24	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	3:0
Austrian Bundesliga
22.09.24	Swarovski Tirol - Red Bull Salzburg	0:0
04.11.23	Swarovski Tirol - Red Bull Salzburg	0:2
06.08.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Swarovski Tirol	3:0

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