Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 23

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Haugesund Stadion (Haugesund)

Referee: Bodding E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play
World	Onefootball


	Haugesund		Sandefjord

	1	X	2
	7	5.25	1.38	Watch
	7.8	5.35	1.34	Watch
	7.74	5.38	1.39
	6.28	4.81	1.44	Watch
	6.7	5.28	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.1 ↑ (4.9)	5.21 ↑ (4.55)	1.39 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Haugesund
13.4%

Draw
18.2%

Sandefjord
68.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

20.8%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

20.6%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Haugesund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Haugesund's form might have worsened.

Sandefjord has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sandefjord's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Haugesund than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Haugesund, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sandefjord than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sandefjord, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Haugesund - Sandefjord Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Haugesund will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Sandefjord will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sandefjord: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sandefjord (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Haugesund (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Haugesund (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Sandefjord (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wichne A. (C) 2. Niyukuri C. 33. Koskela M. 55. Dia M. 3. Hamalainen N. 6. Bizoza P. 40. Grindhaug A. 8. Hannola P. 10. Nyhammer T. 29. Diarra S. 25. Hope M.	13. Eriksson C. (G) 4. Pedersen F. 2. Smajlovic Z. 47. Kristiansen S. 17. Cheng C. 10. Mettler L. 18. Ottosson F. 8. Dzabic R. 7. Patoulidis E. 23. Sigurdarson S. I. 27. Dunsby J. (C)
Substitutes
15. Bjornbak M. 42. Bondhus A. 30. Camara I. 43. Eide L. 4. Fischer M. 36. Helgeland E. 46. Jakobsen F. A. 17. Karlsen H. V. 32. Stople F. (G)	28. Agelin T. 19. Berntsen B. 3. Egeli V. 30. Hadaya E. (G) 24. Mathisen S. 14. Pettersen E. 21. Swift J. 5. van der Spa A.
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Tegstrom A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', Cheng C. 🟨,
9', Koskela M. 🟨,
16', Diarra S. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Cheng C. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Sigurdarson S. I. ⚽, Cheng C. (A),
45+6', 1 - 2, Diarra S. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 2 - 2, Nyhammer T. ⚽, Grindhaug A. (A),
62', Hope M. ↓, Camara I. ↑,
62', Bizoza P. ↓, Eide L. ↑,
63', Mettler L. 🟨,
74', Diarra S. ↓, Karlsen H. V. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Pedersen F. ⚽,
86', Nyhammer T. ↓, Jakobsen F. A. ↑,
87', Ottosson F. 🟨,
88', Dzabic R. ↓, Pettersen E. ↑,
89', Mettler L. ↓, Egeli V. ↑,
90+3', Patoulidis E. ↓, Mathisen S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Haugesund won 2.

Both teams have gone through a run of bad results.

Sandefjord may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sandefjord is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Haugesund: Bondhus A. (Broken collarbone) Espejord R. (Thigh Injury) Samuelsen M. (Hip Injury) Solheim V. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Sandefjord: Gjone M. (Red Card) Mork S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sandefjord: Loftesnes-Bjune F. (Knock) Melchior M. (Knock)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Haugesund won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Haugesund won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 2.3:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Haugesund - the odds 4.9 are the expected chance of winning is 19.35%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Haugesund
Norwegian NM Cup
24.09.25	Haugesund - Rosenborg	1:4 ET ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.09.25	Kristiansund - Haugesund	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Haugesund - Rosenborg	0:3 ✺
31.08.25	Fredrikstad - Haugesund	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Haugesund - Vålerenga	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLTL
- Sandefjord Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
20.09.25	Sandefjord - Brann	0:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
17.09.25	Tromsdalen - Sandefjord	6:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
14.09.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Sandefjord	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sandefjord - Bodø Glimt	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Kristiansund - Sandefjord	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
22.06.25	Sandefjord - Haugesund	4:0
28.07.24	Sandefjord - Haugesund	4:3
26.05.24	Haugesund - Sandefjord	2:1
27.08.23	Sandefjord - Haugesund	0:0
11.06.23	Haugesund - Sandefjord	3:2
13.11.22	Sandefjord - Haugesund	2:2
03.04.22	Haugesund - Sandefjord	1:3

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