Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday


	Hawassa City		Negele Arsi Ketema

	1	X	2
	2.98	2.42	2.78
	3.02	2.45	2.87	Watch
	2.9	2.5	2.63
	2.6	2.63	2.88
	3	2.54	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.4)	2.51 ↓ (2.66)	2.78 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawassa City
31.3%

Draw
36.1%

Negele Arsi Ketema
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

34.6%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

35%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawassa City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawassa City's form might have worsened.

Negele Arsi Ketema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Negele Arsi Ketema's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawassa City than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hawassa City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Negele Arsi Ketema, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hawassa City - Negele Arsi Ketema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Bekele S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 2 - 0, Hefamo T. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification: )).

Recent performances by Hawassa City have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Negele Arsi Ketema is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Negele Arsi Ketema may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hawassa City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Negele Arsi Ketema	38	15	15	8	37:30	7	60
9	Hawassa	38	12	14	12	37:32	5	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawassa City SC
Ethiopian Premier League
17.01.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Hawassa City	1:1 ✺
09.01.26	Hawassa City - Saint George	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Arba Minch - Hawassa City	0:0 ✺
30.12.25	Hawassa City - Hadiya Hossana	0:1 ✺
25.12.25	Sheger Ketema - Hawassa City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWTLW
- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
16.01.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Welayta Dicha	1:1 ✺
08.01.26	Shire Endaselassie - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Mechal	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Dire Dawa City - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:3 ✺
24.12.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWWWW

Hawassa City - Negele Arsi Ketema: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide