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Current Win Probability
Heerenveen 35.1%
Draw 25.9%
AZ Alkmaar 39%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
29%
25.3%
45.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.9%
24.5%
44.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heerenveen's performance.
AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Resink J. (G) 22. Verheijen J. 24. Venema L. 3. Appelmann I. 15. Macleane H. 5. Nassette A. (C) 21. Vermeer B. 7. Algra H. 8. de Haas R. 43. de Groot F. 9. Franken B.
13. Copier F. (G) 14. Van Eynde Z. 4. Verspaget A. (C) 23. Stoop M. 5. Groot P. 8. de Vette M. 21. Van Uden J. 28. Harting N. 16. Harting A. 18. Dessing S. 9. Ellouzi S.
Substitutes
6. Buikema N. 19. Hunten G. 37. Kempers M. 10. Maass E. 2. Sliskovic G. 12. van der Klooster A. (G) 11. van Spijk V.
1. Booms N. (G) 2. Caprino G. 3. De Ridder D. 26. De Visser A. 24. de Vries E. 10. van Lunteren D. 11. Vos D.
Coaches
Tarvajarvi N.
Titaley J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Algra H. ⚽, Nassette A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dessing S. ↓, Vos D. ↑,
47', de Vette M. 🟨,
58', de Vette M. ↓, Caprino G. ↑,
59', Ellouzi S. ↓, De Visser A. ↑,
62', Vermeer B. ↓, Maass E. ↑,
62', Franken B. ↓, van Spijk V. ↑,
77', Vos D. ↓, De Ridder D. ↑,
77', Van Eynde Z. ↓, de Vries E. ↑,
77', de Haas R. ↓, Buikema N. ↑,
77', de Groot F. ↓, Kempers M. ↑,
83', Verheijen J. 🟨,
90+2', Buikema N. 🟨,
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 6th and 4th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 3.
Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Heerenveen has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:9 (averaging 2:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Heerenveen against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1.7:2 per game).
Netherlands
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Resink J. (G) 
Van Eynde Z. 
Ellouzi S. 
Hunten G. 
Sliskovic G. 
Tarvajarvi N. 
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