Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 30

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday

Location: Raudondvario stadionas (Raudondvario)

Referee: Rumsas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Hegelmann Litauen		Panevėžys

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.20	2.15
	2.9	3.15	2.15
	3.03	3.45	2.26
	3.02	3.44	2.23	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.17
	2.96	3.22	2.21	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.44)	3.28 ↓ (3.49)	2.19 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hegelmann Litauen
30.8%

Draw
27.7%

Panevėžys
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

26.6%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

26%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hegelmann Litauen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hegelmann Litauen's form might have worsened.

Panevėžys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Panevėžys's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hegelmann Litauen than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hegelmann Litauen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panevėžys than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Panevėžys, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Hegelmann Litauen - Panevėžys Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Hegelmann will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Panevėžys will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paukste L. (G) 37. Radonja V. 5. Puerto A. 44. Nathan Silva 27. Richard 6. Harouna A. 16. Remeikis M. 9. Kazlauskas D. (C) 77. Wesley 45. Shchedryi A. 22. Tibell D.	1. Cerniauskas V. (C) 32. Rasimavicius R. 66. Balsys D. 33. Keita S. 15. Janusevskis J. 77. Bizoza P. 6. Ramanauskas M. 8. Kouadio S. 28. Burdzilauskas E. 34. Asante I. 79. Paulauskas V.
Substitutes
31. Bagdonavicius R. (G) 30. Isaac B. 20. Jonaitis L. 67. Kaulinis A. 21. Kausinis E. 80. Kolendo L. (G) 10. Oum Gouet S. 19. Pasilys D. 18. Sadauskas R. 24. Sinkevicius D. 26. Slendzoka D.	27. Asamoah K. 16. Bacanin M. 95. Bopesu J. 22. Brazinskas A. (G) 11. Grajfoner L. 13. Kerkez S. 50. Krasniqi L. 24. Petkevicius N. 26. Simon J. 12. Valius L. (G) 7. Veliulis E.
Coaches
Aramburu Erneta M.	Korkeakunnas T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Paulauskas V. ↓, Asamoah K. ↑,
39', 0 - 1, Asante I. ⚽, Rasimavicius R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Richard ↓, Oum Gouet S. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, Burdzilauskas E. ⚽,
57', 0 - 3, Asamoah K. ⚽, Balsys D. (A),
59', Remeikis M. ↓, Pasilys D. ↑,
59', Kazlauskas D. ↓, Slendzoka D. ↑,
59', Shchedryi A. ↓, Kausinis E. ↑,
66', 1 - 3, Harouna A. ⚽,
70', Asante I. ↓, Veliulis E. ↑,
70', Kouadio S. ↓, Petkevicius N. ↑,
80', Wesley ↓, Kaulinis A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 2.

Hegelmann has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Panevėžys has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hegelmann may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Panevėžys has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hegelmann won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:13. (average 2:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	FK Panevezys	28	9	5	14	29:43	-14	32
8	Hegelmann	29	4	14	11	31:48	-17	26

Last Results with these Odds

Hegelmann Litauen - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.07%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Panevėžys - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.32%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
31.08.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Hegelmann Litauen	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Banga Gargždai	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Transinvest	1:2 ✺
27.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTLLL
- FK Panevėžys
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
03.09.26	Banga Gargždai - Panevėžys	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Panevėžys - Žalgiris	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys	2:0 ✺
17.08.26	FA Šiauliai - Panevėžys	1:0 ✺
10.08.26	Transinvest - Panevėžys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1
06.05.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Panevėžys	3:2
07.03.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1
Lithuanian Cup
28.09.25	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:0
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.09.25	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	0:1
17.08.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Panevėžys	3:1
10.05.25	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	3:0

Hegelmann Litauen - Panevėžys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide