Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Trpchevski S. (Mkd)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Onefootball


	Paide LM		Hegelmann Litauen

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.80	3.40	4.00
	1.85	3.35	3.95
	1.94	3.55	4.32
	1.84	3.56	4.18	Watch
	1.8	2.95	4.7
	1.86	3.45	4.46	Watch
	1.83	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.69)	3.36 ↓ (3.58)	4.26 ↓ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
50.6%

Draw
27.6%

Hegelmann Litauen
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

25.6%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

24.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Hegelmann Litauen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paide LM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hegelmann Litauen than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.8%	21.2%	3%

Paide LM - Hegelmann Litauen Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Paide will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). Hegelmann will win (votes: 1 - 3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 21.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paide: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - draw (2.52) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DC - Hegelmann (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 1 - 20%). Hegelmann (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 27. Baranov N. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 10. Miller M. 28. Hoim O. (C) 11. Sohna M. P. 77. Luts D. 30. Badamosi A. 24. Nigula R.	31. Bagdonavicius R. (G) 26. Slendzoka D. 18. Sadauskas R. 30. Isaac B. 37. Radonja V. 21. Kausinis E. 8. Armanavicius V. (C) 16. Remeikis M. 7. Duke C. 11. Njoya A. 77. Wesley
Substitutes
9. Anier H. 17. Cham P. A. 6. Daniel Cabral 14. Jobarteh M. 2. Lilander M. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 8. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	6. Harouna A. 67. Kaulinis A. 9. Kazlauskas D. 80. Kolendo L. (G) 10. Oum Gouet S. 19. Pasilys D. 1. Paukste L. (G) 5. Puerto A. 45. Shchedryi A. 24. Sinkevicius D. 22. Tibell D.
Coaches
Laurikainen M.	Aramburu Erneta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Sohna M. P. ⚽, Luts D. (A),
27', Slendzoka D. 🟨,
39', Radonja V. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Badamosi A. ⚽, Sohna M. P. (A),
44', Nigula R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duke C. ↓, Kaulinis A. ↑,
46', Njoya A. ↓, Tibell D. ↑,
46', Nigula R. ↓, Daniel Cabral ↑,
46', Miller M. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
62', Luts D. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
64', Kausinis E. ↓, Shchedryi A. ↑,
66', Badamosi A. ↓, Anier H. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Piht K. ⚽,
72', Armanavicius V. ↓, Kazlauskas D. ↑,
73', Andrade ↓, Lilander M. ↑,
81', Hoim O. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Paide is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hegelmann has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Paide is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paide won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Paide LM - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.49%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWTWW
- Hegelmann Litauen
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
17.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Džiugas Telšiai	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
09.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM	1:1

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