Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Raudondvario stadionas (Raudondvario)

Referee: Aydin C. (Tur)


	Hegelmann Litauen		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.50	2.90	Watch
	2.10	3.25	3.20
	2.20	3.35	3.10	Watch
	2.15	3.35	3.34
	2.33	3.37	2.91	Watch
	2.12	3.20	3.05
	2.20	3.45	3.25	Watch
	2.13	3.40	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (3.36)	3.36 ↓ (3.37)	3.12 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hegelmann Litauen
42.8%

Draw
27.5%

Paide LM
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hegelmann Litauen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hegelmann Litauen's performance.

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paide LM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hegelmann Litauen than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hegelmann Litauen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paide LM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Hegelmann will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Paide will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hegelmann: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hegelmann (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bagdonavicius R. (G) 16. Remeikis M. 18. Sadauskas R. 30. Isaac B. 37. Radonja V. 21. Kausinis E. 8. Armanavicius V. (C) 10. Oum Gouet S. 7. Duke C. 77. Wesley 11. Njoya A.	99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 27. Baranov N. 3. Victor Hugo 2. Lilander M. 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. (C) 10. Miller M. 77. Luts D. 30. Badamosi A. 11. Sohna M. P.
Substitutes
6. Harouna A. 67. Kaulinis A. 9. Kazlauskas D. 80. Kolendo L. (G) 19. Pasilys D. 1. Paukste L. (G) 45. Shchedryi A. 24. Sinkevicius D. 26. Slendzoka D. 22. Tibell D.	4. Andrade 9. Anier H. 17. Cham P. A. 14. Jobarteh M. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 24. Nigula R. 8. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Aramburu Erneta M.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Badamosi A. ⚽, Lilander M. (A),
45+1', Armanavicius V. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 1 - 1, Armanavicius V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Kausinis E. ↓, Shchedryi A. ↑,
64', Duke C. ↓, Kaulinis A. ↑,
65', Daniel Cabral ↓, Luts S. ↑,
65', Lilander M. ↓, Nigula R. ↑,
65', Badamosi A. ↓, Anier H. ↑,
74', Luts D. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
78', Miller M. ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
79', Remeikis M. ↓, Slendzoka D. ↑,
79', Oum Gouet S. ↓, Harouna A. ↑,
79', Wesley ↓, Kazlauskas D. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Recent form of Hegelmann has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Paide is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
17.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Džiugas Telšiai	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
29.05.26	Transinvest - Hegelmann Litauen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLTTL
- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTWWT

Upcoming Matches