Match Info

National League South - Round 39

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Totton

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.5	3.85
	1.83	3.61	4.11
	1.81	3.77	3.97	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.8	3.42	3.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.93)	3.52 ↑ (3.45)	3.98 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
50.6%

Draw
26.2%

Totton
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

26.7%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.2%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Totton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Totton than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Hemel Hempstead Town - Totton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Vilhete M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Noel-Williams I. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Totton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hemel Hempstead is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:3. (average 4.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3% AFC Totton: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8:15	-7	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
10.03.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
23.02.26	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Horsham - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWLL
- AFC Totton
English National League South
10.03.26	Weston-super-Mare - Totton	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Totton - Horsham	3:0 ✺
03.03.26	Maidenhead United - Totton	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Totton	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Totton - Slough Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
18.10.25	Totton - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1
English Southern Premier League
25.01.14	Totton - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:4
26.11.13	Hemel Hempstead Town - Totton	8:1

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