Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 5 May 2025, Monday

Location: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium (Zhengzhou)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Henan Songshan Longmen		Tianjin Jinmen Tiger

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2	3.2	3.5
	2.03	3.55	3.4	Watch
	2.06	3.65	3.61
	2.01	3.56	3.48	Watch
	2	3.4	3.4
	2.04	3.68	3.52	Watch
	2.03	3.55	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.05)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)	3.49 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henan Songshan Longmen
46.3%

Draw
26.9%

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

26.8%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25.4%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henan Songshan Longmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Henan Jianye will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tianjin Jinmen Tiger will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Henan Jianye (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Henan Jianye (votes: 2 - 25%). Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Wang Guoming (G) 22. Huang Ruifeng 36. Iago Maidana 23. Lucas Maia 7. Zhong Yihao 39. Li Xingxian 20. He Chao 15. Liu Bin 10. Huang Zichang 40. Bruno Nazario 11. Acheampong F. (C)	22. Fang Jingqi (G) 29. Ba Dun 6. Wang Xianjun 37. Ros J. 14. Huang Jiahui 16. Yang Zihao 7. Ademi A. 8. Xadas 30. Wang Qiuming (C) 10. Salvador C. 9. Quiles A.
Substitutes
21. Chen Keqiang 14. Du Zhixuan 3. Gerbig O. 5. Liu Jiahui 30. Liu Xinyu 2. Liu Yixin 27. Niu Ziyi 4. Shinar Yeljan 26. Xu Jiamin (G) 16. Yang Kuo 8. Yin Hongbo 29. Zheng Dalun	36. Guo Hao 19. Liu J. 13. Li Yongjia 1. Li Yuefeng (G) 23. Qian Yumiao 5. Ruan Yang 31. Sun Ming-Him 32. Su Yuanjie 3. Wang Zhenghao 11. Xie Weijun 25. Yan Bingliang (G) 4. Yang Fan
Coaches
Ramos D.	Yu Genwei

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Bruno Nazario (Pen),
9', Iago Maidana 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Bruno Nazario (Own goal),
35', Liu Bin ↓, Liu Yixin ↑,
38', 1 - 2, Quiles A. ⚽, Xadas (A),
40', Huang Ruifeng 🟨,
45+7', Fang Jingqi ↓, Yan Bingliang ↑,
45+8', 2 - 2, Bruno Nazario ⚽,
45+13', Salvador C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', Li Xingxian ↓, Yin Hongbo ↑,
67', Ademi A. ↓, Sun Ming-Him ↑,
73', Wang Xianjun 🟨,
74', Huang Zichang ↓, Liu Xinyu ↑,
74', Zhong Yihao ↓, Du Zhixuan ↑,
75', 3 - 2, Lucas Maia ⚽,
78', Wang Qiuming ↓, Guo Hao ↑,
79', Huang Jiahui ↓, Yang Fan ↑,
79', Ba Dun ↓, Xie Weijun ↑,
81', Bruno Nazario 🟨,
82', Du Zhixuan 🟨,
87', 3 - 3, Xadas (Pen),
90', 3 - 4, Guo Hao ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Henan Jianye won 1.

In recent matches, Henan Jianye has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Henan Jianye is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Henan Jianye: Wang Shangyuan (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: Shi Yan (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Henan Jianye won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:21. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Henan Jianye won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 0.9:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
01.05.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Wuhan Three Towns	1:2 ✺
25.04.25	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Qingdao Hainiu	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Dalian Young Boy - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWLW
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Chinese Super League
01.05.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Wuhan Three Towns - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Zhejiang Professional	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Shanghai Port	1:4 ✺
12.04.25	Dalian Young Boy - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
14.09.24	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0
04.05.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:2
13.08.23	Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:0
14.05.23	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0
10.12.22	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1
14.09.22	Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	0:1
28.12.21	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0

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