Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Santa Catarina - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Hercílio Luz		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.87	3.1
	2.22	2.9	3.25
	2.31	2.85	3.33
	2.29	2.89	3.28	Watch
	2.18	2.99	3.27
	2.22	2.9	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.01)	2.9 ↓ (3.1)	3.25 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
40.6%

Draw
31.3%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
28%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.4%

29.4%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

28.4%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hercílio Luz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Hercílio Luz - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Caio Mancha ⚽,
85', 1 - 1, Juninho Tardelli (Pen),
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, (Pen),
1, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
27.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:0 ✺
12.10.24	Hercílio Luz - Concórdia	3:2 ✺
02.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	1:3 ✺
28.09.24	Hercílio Luz - Nação	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Figueirense - Hercílio Luz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWWW
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
27.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:0 ✺
19.10.24	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:0 ✺
15.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
02.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	1:3 ✺
29.09.24	Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
27.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:0
02.10.24	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	1:3
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
11.02.24	Hercílio Luz - Náutico Marcílio Dias	2:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
12.11.23	Hercílio Luz - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:3 penalties
05.11.23	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
15.01.23	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:2
19.02.22	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	0:0

Hercílio Luz - Náutico Marcílio Dias

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Key Events of the Match

Form

Latest Head to Head

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