Match Info

Cymru North - Round 14

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Holyhead Hotspur		Gresford Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.75	3.4
	1.83	3.74	3.68
	2.03	4.02	2.98	Watch
	1.88	4.16	3.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.93)	3.92 ↓ (4)	3.36 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holyhead Hotspur
48.9%

Draw
23.6%

Gresford Athletic
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

22.6%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

20.3%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holyhead Hotspur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Gresford Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holyhead Hotspur than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Holyhead Hotspur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gresford Athletic than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gresford Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Holyhead Hotspur - Gresford Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Owen C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Ozlu H. 🟥,
82', 2 - 0, Owen C. ⚽,
89', 3 - 0, Owen C. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

Holyhead is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gresford has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gresford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Holyhead could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holyhead won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Holyhead won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holyhead Hotspur
Welsh Cymru North
08.11.25	Guilsfield - Holyhead Hotspur	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Holyhead Hotspur - Denbigh Town	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Newtown - Holyhead Hotspur	1:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Holyhead Hotspur - Airbus UK Broughton	2:5 ✺
Welsh Cymru North
11.10.25	Holyhead Hotspur - Ruthin Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLLL
- Gresford Athletic
Welsh Cymru North
08.11.25	Caersws - Gresford Athletic	3:1 ✺
31.10.25	Gresford Athletic - Newtown	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Brickfield Rangers - Gresford Athletic	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Gresford Athletic - Buckley Town	0:7 ✺
26.09.25	Gresford Athletic - Airbus UK Broughton	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru North
11.02.23	Holyhead Hotspur - Gresford Athletic	0:2
04.02.23	Gresford Athletic - Holyhead Hotspur	1:3
29.01.22	Gresford Athletic - Holyhead Hotspur	0:0
Welsh Cymru Alliance
29.12.18	Gresford Athletic - Holyhead Hotspur	5:1

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