Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 10

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Homburg		Schott Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.95	5.7
	1.43	5.09	5.63
	1.37	4.8	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.42)	4.95 (4.95)	5.84 ↑ (5.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Homburg
65.6%

Draw
18.6%

Schott Mainz
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

18.5%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

14.4%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Schott Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Homburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schott Mainz than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Schott Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Homburg - Schott Mainz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Kovacic O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Ahlbach D. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Qenaj A. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 4.

Homburg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Schott Mainz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Schott Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Homburg is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Homburg won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
27.09.25	Homburg - Sonnenhof Großaspach	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Mainz II - Homburg	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Homburg - TSV Steinbach Haiger	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Kickers Offenbach - Homburg	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Homburg - Astoria Walldorf	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTTTL
- TSV Schott Mainz
German Regionalliga Sudwest
26.09.25	Schott Mainz - Mainz II	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Astoria Walldorf - Schott Mainz	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Schott Mainz - Hessen Kassel	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Freiburg II - Schott Mainz	3:3 ✺
30.08.25	FSV Frankfurt - Schott Mainz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
02.03.24	Schott Mainz - Homburg	1:2
29.08.23	Homburg - Schott Mainz	2:2
05.03.22	Schott Mainz - Homburg	0:3
18.09.21	Homburg - Schott Mainz	1:0
20.02.21	Homburg - Schott Mainz	2:1
15.09.20	Schott Mainz - Homburg	3:0

Upcoming Matches