Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Shell Energy Stadium (Houston, TX)

Referee: Wiseman T. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Houston Dynamo		El Paso Locomotive

	1	X	2
	1.27	5	6.25	Watch
	1.33	5.3	7.7
	1.29	5.43	9.49
	1.39	4.72	6.38	Watch
	1.3	4.75	7.5
	1.33	5.67	7.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.51)	5.15 ↑ (4.17)	7.4 ↑ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Houston Dynamo
69.7%

Draw
17.9%

El Paso Locomotive
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

21.9%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

20.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Houston Dynamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Houston Dynamo's performance.

El Paso Locomotive has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Paso Locomotive might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Houston Dynamo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Paso Locomotive could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Houston Dynamo - El Paso Locomotive Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Houston will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maurer J. (G) 36. Felipe Andrade 34. Resch A. 21. Negri F. 13. Vines S. 24. Aliyu I. 30. Bouzat A. 16. Herrera H. (C) 17. Markanich N. 9. Lingr O. 20. Guilherme	1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 25. Ortiz A. 21. Twumasi K. 93. Tony Alfaro 18. Quezada A. 6. Calvillo E. (C) 30. Coronado R. 12. Ruiz R. 19. Mendez A. 14. Rubin R. 16. Gabriel Torres
Substitutes
3. Antonio Carlos 19. Bogusz M. 31. Bond J. (G) 11. Ennali L. 14. Holmes D. 10. Ponce E. 18. Samassekou D.	9. Abitia D. 13. Avila R. 11. Farkarlun B. 5. Gomez D. 29. Hoban K. 99. Romero A. (G)
Coaches
Olsen B.	Gonzalez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Lingr O. ⚽, Markanich N. (A),
25', Twumasi K. 🟥,
30', Resch A. 🟨,
45+1', Negri F. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Guilherme ↓, Bogusz M. ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Bogusz M. ⚽, Lingr O. (A),
58', 3 - 0, Markanich N. ⚽, Herrera H. (A),
59', Felipe Andrade ↓, Antonio Carlos ↑,
59', Negri F. ↓, Ponce E. ↑,
68', Mendez A. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
68', Rubin R. ↓, Abitia D. ↑,
68', Gabriel Torres ↓, Avila R. ↑,
70', Herrera H. ↓, Samassekou D. ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Avila R. ⚽, Ruiz R. (A),
79', Calvillo E. ↓, Farkarlun B. ↑,
79', Quezada A. ↓, Hoban K. ↑,
79', Aliyu I. ↓, Ennali L. ↑,
80', 4 - 1, Ponce E. ⚽, Bogusz M. (A),

Preview

Recent form of Houston has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

El Paso is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

El Paso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, El Paso has had a series of away games.

In this match, Houston is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Houston Dynamo
MLS
11.04.26	Colorado Rapids - Houston Dynamo	6:2 ✺
04.04.26	Houston Dynamo - Seattle Sounders	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	FC Dallas - Houston Dynamo	4:3 ✺
14.03.26	Houston Dynamo - Portland Timbers	3:2 ✺
28.02.26	Houston Dynamo - Los Angeles	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL
- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
11.04.26	Hartford Athletic - El Paso Locomotive	0:4 ✺
04.04.26	El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights	3:2 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	New Mexico United - El Paso Locomotive	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
19.03.26	Laredo Heat - El Paso Locomotive	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WWWWW

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