Match Info

MLS

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Shell Energy Stadium (Houston, TX)

Referee: Ford T. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Houston Dynamo		Sporting Kansas City

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.61	4.20	4.75
	1.62	4.15	4.9
	1.64	4.33	5.25
	1.6	4.26	5.1	Watch
	1.62	4.2	5.1
	1.66	4.3	4.87	Watch
	1.63	4.1	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.46)	4.22 ↓ (4.68)	4.92 ↓ (6.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Houston Dynamo
58.4%

Draw
22.4%

Sporting Kansas City
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

20.2%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

19.7%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Houston Dynamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Houston Dynamo's form might have worsened.

Sporting Kansas City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Houston Dynamo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Kansas City than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Houston Dynamo - Sporting Kansas City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Houston (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.57) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Houston Dynamo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Houston (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bond J. (G) 11. Ennali L. 5. Lucas Halter 6. Artur (C) 3. Antonio Carlos 21. Negri F. 24. Aliyu I. 30. Bouzat A. 16. Herrera H. 20. Guilherme 19. Bogusz M.	30. Cleveland S. (G) 13. Reynolds J. 15. Miller J. 28. Meyer W. 18. Karic E. 11. Andre Luiz 4. Johnsen L. (C) 20. Agyabeng K. 14. Harris C. 19. Calheira T. 17. Afrifa S.
Substitutes
22. Arana M. 36. Felipe Andrade 9. Foster L. 26. Gillingham B. (G) 14. Holmes D. 17. Markanich N. 23. McGuire D. 18. Samassekou D. 4. Saracchi M.	16. Bartlett J. 22. Bassong Z. 2. James I. 1. Pulskamp J. (G) 24. Ramos R. 99. Reid J. 29. Reid S. 93. Suleymanov S. 33. Wolff O.
Coaches
Olsen B.	Wicky R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
1', Reynolds J. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Afrifa S. (A),
45', 0 - 2, Harris C. ⚽, Andre Luiz (A),
45+3', Herrera H. 🟥,
45+4', Calheira T. 🟨,
45+6', Harris C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Antonio Carlos 🟨,
56', Negri F. ↓, Felipe Andrade ↑,
60', Andre Luiz ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
68', Afrifa S. 🟨,
72', Ennali L. ↓, Saracchi M. ↑,
72', Aliyu I. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
72', Bouzat A. ↓, Arana M. ↑,
72', Reynolds J. ↓, Bartlett J. ↑,
72', Harris C. ↓, Wolff O. ↑,
79', Calheira T. ↓, Reid S. ↑,
80', Afrifa S. ↓, Bassong Z. ↑,
82', Bogusz M. ↓, McGuire D. ↑,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ MLS Playoffs1/8~finals) and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Houston won 2.

Houston has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Kansas City has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Houston is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Houston: Arana M. (International duty).

Confirmed absences for Kansas City: Blorian O. (Chest Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Houston: Foster L. (Inactive) Maurer J. (Concussion) Resch A. (Lower-Body Injury) Saracchi M. (Lower-Body Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Kansas City: Capita (Hamstring Injury) Davis J. (Injury) James I. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Houston has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:29 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Houston against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:9 goals (averaging 1.1:1 per game).

Outrights of MLS for now

Houston Dynamo: 4.56% Sporting Kansas City: 0.53%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Houston Dynamo
MLS
19.09.26	Houston Dynamo - Cincinnati	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Houston Dynamo	1:0 ✺
09.09.26	Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Charlotte - Houston Dynamo	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Houston Dynamo - San Jose Earthquakes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLWTT
- Sporting Kansas City
MLS
19.09.26	Sporting Kansas City - Philadelphia Union	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Sporting Kansas City - Los Angeles	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	FC Dallas - Sporting Kansas City	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Sporting Kansas City - Vancouver Whitecaps	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Atlanta United - Sporting Kansas City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
01.08.26	Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo	0:2
18.10.25	Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo	0:0
31.05.25	Houston Dynamo - Sporting Kansas City	1:3
11.05.24	Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo	1:2
24.02.24	Houston Dynamo - Sporting Kansas City	1:1
26.11.23	Houston Dynamo - Sporting Kansas City	1:0
23.09.23	Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo	2:1

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