Match Info

League Two - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Xinhua Road Sports Center (Wuhan)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	ZhiBo8


	Hubei Istar		Changchun Xidu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	2.90	2.80
	2.00	3.00	3.50
	2.58	2.94	3.34
	2.3	3.1	3.02	Watch
	2.55	2.40	3.30
	2.40	3.13	3.00
	2.22	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2)	2.92 ↓ (3)	3.12 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubei Istar
39.2%

Draw
31.4%

Changchun Xidu
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

30%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubei Istar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hubei Istar's form might have worsened.

Changchun Xidu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubei Istar than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hubei Istar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Changchun Xidu than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Hubei Istar - Changchun Xidu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Wei Deliang (G) 55. Liu Mingyu 27. Zhang Yixuan 4. Sun Tianyu 3. Tang Xin 13. Pan Jinglue 20. Nie Aoshuang (C) 15. Nur Sherzat 12. Lin F. 6. Du Xiaoyu 10. Wen Jialong	17. Hu H. (G) 7. Wang Xin (C) 5. Yang Lei 58. Kadir Aysan 21. Wang H. 11. Sun Fei 13. Wang Tianci 10. Huang Wenzhuo 45. Yang Jingfan 39. Liang Huan 29. Memet Nuryasin
Substitutes
36. Bian Weihao 7. Guo Yi 33. Hongxiang S. 32. Jiang Chengen (G) 57. Li X. 30. Li Yubing 1. Meng Derui (G) 19. Qu D. 9. Shan Huanhuan 23. Sun W. 25. Wang Y.	44. Chen Quanjiang 49. Feng Zijun 37. Li Jiaqi 24. Liu Jiahao 6. Liu Yang 2. Wang Song 22. Yang Xinyang (G) 3. Yangyang Ma 23. Ye-Yang Runyi 8. Yu Z. 18. Zhong Weihong
Coaches
Wan Houliang	Li Bin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Wang Xin 🟨,
32', Du Xiaoyu 🟨,
36', Pan Jinglue 🟨,
36', Yang Jingfan 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Memet Nuryasin ⚽, Wang Xin (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Lin F. ↓, Shan Huanhuan ↑,
59', Liu Mingyu ↓, Sun W. ↑,
59', Du Xiaoyu ↓, Li X. ↑,
60', Huang Wenzhuo 🟨,
67', Yang Jingfan ↓, Feng Zijun ↑,
68', Huang Wenzhuo ↓, Liu Yang ↑,
70', Wang Xin ↓, Wang Song ↑,
79', Liang Huan ↓, Zhong Weihong ↑,
79', Sun Fei ↓, Yangyang Ma ↑,
80', Nur Sherzat ↓, Guo Yi ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Li X. ⚽, Guo Yi (A),
90+6', 1 - 2, Memet Nuryasin ⚽, Wang Song (A),

Preview

Hubei Istar is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Changchun Xidu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hubei Istar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hubei Istar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Hubei Istar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubei Istar
Chinese Yi League
23.08.26	Shenzhen 2028 - Hubei Istar	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	Hubei Istar - Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Chengdu Rongcheng B - Hubei Istar	3:2 ✺
05.08.26	Hubei Istar - Jiangxi Lushan	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Hubei Istar - Guangdong Mingtu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLLLT
- Changchun Xidu
Chinese Yi League
22.08.26	Changchun Xidu - Dalian Kewei	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Beijing Institute of Technology - Changchun Xidu	2:2 ✺
05.08.26	Changchun Xidu - Dalian Yingbo B	0:1 ✺
02.08.26	Shanghai Second - Changchun Xidu	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Shandong Taishan B - Changchun Xidu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Yi League
24.06.25	Changchun Xidu - Hubei Istar	1:0
23.03.25	Hubei Istar - Changchun Xidu	1:3

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