Match Info

Date: 25 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Galvez Rascon D. (Esp)


	Lugo		Real Oviedo

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.3	2.87	2.2
	3.4	3	2.3
	3.35	2.9	2.3
	3.7	2.96	2.38
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	3.5	2.88	2.34	Watch
	3.4	2.95	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (3.01)	2.93 ↓ (3)	2.33 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
27.6%

Draw
32%

Real Oviedo
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

31.4%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

33.7%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	37.5%	18.7%

Lugo - Real Oviedo Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 14 - 43.8%). Oviedo will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lugo: 26.6% – 61%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 14).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (11.87%), has project points - 47, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Oviedo has the most likely position - 8 (5.92%), has project points - 60, has currently - 8, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), has a small chance of promoted (14%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 32, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Oviedo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Lugo won 3 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
17.09.22	Villarreal B - Lugo	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
04.09.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.08.22	Lugo - Leganés	1:0 ✺
21.08.22	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LLWWT
- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga2
17.09.22	Real Oviedo - Ibiza	0:1 ✺
10.09.22	Burgos - Real Oviedo	0:0 ✺
05.09.22	Real Oviedo - Levante	1:1 ✺
28.08.22	Racing Santander - Real Oviedo	0:1 ✺
21.08.22	Real Oviedo - Leganés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
19.03.22	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:1
15.08.21	Real Oviedo - Lugo	2:2
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
15.02.21	Real Oviedo - Lugo	3:1
24.11.20	Lugo - Real Oviedo	0:0
23.02.20	Lugo - Real Oviedo	1:0
24.08.19	Real Oviedo - Lugo	1:1

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