Match Info

Date: 17 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Ciudad Deportiva (Villarreal)

Referee: Guzman Mansilla J. L. (Esp)


	Villarreal B		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.4
	1.8	3.3	4.9
	1.77	3.4	4.5
	1.72	3.72	5.52
				Watch
	1.73	3.65	4.8	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.17)	3.5 ↑ (3.1)	4.85 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal B
53.6%

Draw
27%

Lugo
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

30.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

30.1%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villarreal B's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal B than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villarreal B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Villarreal B - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: Villarreal B will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Villarreal B has the most likely position - 18 (6.39%), has project points - 52, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (8.8%), has project points - 49, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (33%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 28, importance 35, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Villarreal B is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal B
Spanish LaLiga2
10.09.22	Levante - Villarreal B	4:1 ✺
03.09.22	Villarreal B - Mirandés	3:0 ✺
29.08.22	Granada - Villarreal B	3:0 ✺
19.08.22	Villarreal B - Eibar	2:2 ✺
14.08.22	Racing Santander - Villarreal B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWLTW
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
10.09.22	Lugo - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
04.09.22	Zaragoza - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.08.22	Lugo - Leganés	1:0 ✺
21.08.22	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
15.08.22	Lugo - Albacete Balompié	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LWWTL

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