Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 28

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadi Municipal de Can Misses (Ibiza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ibiza		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.6	6
	1.52	3.8	6.67
	1.49	4	6.7	Watch
	1.5	3.4	6
	1.49	3.62	6.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.45)	3.68 ↑ (3.62)	6.39 ↓ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ibiza
60.9%

Draw
24.8%

Marbella
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

25%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

24.2%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ibiza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Ibiza - Marbella Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Paradowski T. (G) 17. Medina U. 16. Pedreno M. 5. Gonzalez Nacho 22. Sola A. 28. Incera I. 12. Garcia D. 11. Castillo F. 24. Valls T. 7. Bebe 10. Svensson M.	1. Garcia M. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 22. Rodriguez J. 4. Castellano A. 3. Martinez A. 20. Cambra J. 8. Eugeni 16. Ruiz A. 19. Ohemeng E. 9. Sanchez V. 24. Selma D.
Substitutes
3. Albert J. 9. Davo 8. del Olmo I. 6. del Pozo D. 2. Diez S. 19. Eslava J. 18. Indias I. 1. Juan Ramirez R. (G) 21. Kembo Y. 4. Monjonell E. 14. Nsukula G. 25. Torrelavid C. (G)	17. Alexiel 15. Gabri 10. Gil A. 30. Guzman T. 11. Moreno P. 26. Navarro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Castellano A. 🟨,
57', Gonzalez Nacho 🟨,
60', 🟨,
60', Svensson M. ↓, Nsukula G. ↑,
60', Bebe ↓, Davo ↑,
72', Selma D. ↓, Gil A. ↑,
72', Ruiz A. ↓, Guzman T. ↑,
72', 🟨,
81', 0 - 1, Eugeni ⚽,
84', Indias I. ↓, Eslava J. ↑,
84', Medina U. ↓, del Olmo I. ↑,
89', Ohemeng E. ↓, Alexiel ↑,
90+1', Gil A. 🟨,
90+5', Guzman T. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Ibiza has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marbella's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Marbella may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ibiza is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ibiza won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ibiza won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 3:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	UD Ibiza	6	3	0	3	8:8	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ibiza
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.03.26	Antequera - Ibiza	0:3 ✺
01.03.26	Ibiza - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Teruel - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Ibiza - Sabadell	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Betis B - Ibiza	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWL
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.03.26	Real Murcia - Marbella	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Marbella - CE Europa	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Marbella	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Marbella - Algeciras	4:1 ✺
15.02.26	Cartagena - Marbella	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.09.25	Marbella - Ibiza	1:1
12.04.25	Marbella - Ibiza	2:1
16.11.24	Ibiza - Marbella	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
10.03.19	Marbella - Ibiza	3:1
21.10.18	Ibiza - Marbella	4:0

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