Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 7

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadi Municipal de Can Misses (Ibiza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mora P. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Ibiza		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.10
	2.05	3.25	3.10
	2.12	3.25	2.95
	2.08	3.37	3.42
	2.22	3.33	3.14	Watch
	2.03	3.30	3.35
	2.14	3.44	3.23
	2.07	3.35	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.2)	3.32 ↓ (3.37)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ibiza
43.7%

Draw
27.5%

Real Madrid Castilla
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27.6%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

26.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ibiza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 2. Busto P. 4. Blasco J. 24. Ruiz E. 3. Garcia V. 6. Calavera J. 18. Astals D. 20. Ortiz P. 17. Valls T. (C) 10. Yoldi A. 9. Justo M.	1. Mestre S. (G) 2. Fortea J. 5. Martinez J. 21. Naasei O. 3. Aguado D. 7. Yanez D. 16. Martinez S. 6. Cestero Sancho J. 17. Ciria A. 10. Fortuny P. (C) 19. Carvajal A.
Substitutes
23. Almenara G. 15. Curbelo E. 7. Eslava J. 5. Fadel I. 27. Gorla A. 21. Lazo J. 22. Modesto H. 26. Pugliese P. 13. Stamatakis D. (G) 31. Vlad R. (G)	23. Fati L. 11. Leiva A. 25. Lorente F. Q. (G) 20. Martin R. 22. Mesonero D. 13. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 30. Navascues L. 14. Regueira I. 4. Rivas M. 38. Santamaria F.
Coaches
Llona R.	Lopez de Lerma J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Ortiz P. ⚽, Justo M. (A),
15', Garcia V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Busto P. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
56', Martinez S. ↓, Martin R. ↑,
57', Fortuny P. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
67', Justo M. ↓, Eslava J. ↑,
67', Ortiz P. ↓, Fadel I. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Carvajal A. ⚽, Aguado D. (A),
80', Eslava J. ↓, Lazo J. ↑,
89', Lazo J. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ibiza won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ibiza is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Ibiza has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:4 (averaging 0.7:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ibiza against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:0 goals (averaging 0:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	UD Ibiza	9	4	2	3	14:13	1	14
12	Real Madrid B	9	3	3	3	11:11	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Ibiza - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.2%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.24%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ibiza
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.10.26	Villarreal B - Ibiza	0:1 ✺
25.09.26	Ibiza - Zaragoza	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Real Jaén - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ibiza - Sant Andreu	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ibiza - Rayo Majadahonda	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLWW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.10.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Sant Andreu - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Águilas - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Juventud de Torremolinos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
17.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ibiza	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.04.25	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
31.08.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Ibiza	0:1
05.05.24	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
13.01.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Ibiza	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF Promotion Play Offs
16.05.21	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ET
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.11.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Ibiza	1:2

Upcoming Matches