Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Vivo Azzurro TV


	Igea Virtus Barcellona		ACR Messina

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.88
	2.34	3.09	2.92
	2.32	3	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.28)	3.03 ↑ (3.02)	2.92 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Igea Virtus Barcellona
39.1%

Draw
29.9%

ACR Messina
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

30.1%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.2%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Igea Virtus Barcellona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ACR Messina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Igea Virtus Barcellona than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Igea Virtus Barcellona - ACR Messina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Igea Virtus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Igea Virtus won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Igea Virtus won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14:11	3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Igea Virtus Barcellona - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.92%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Igea Virtus Barcellona
Italian Serie D - Group I
22.04.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Vibonese	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Savoia - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:0 ✺
02.04.26	Ragusa - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Castrumfavara	3:2 ✺
25.03.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Reggina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLWL
- ACR Messina
Italian Serie D - Group I
19.04.26	Vigor Lamezia - ACR Messina	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	ACR Messina - Ragusa	1:0 ✺
02.04.26	Savoia - ACR Messina	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	ACR Messina - Gelbison Cilento	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Vibonese - ACR Messina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
14.12.25	ACR Messina - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:0
13.01.19	ACR Messina - Igea Virtus Barcellona	3:0
23.09.18	Igea Virtus Barcellona - ACR Messina	3:0
25.03.18	Igea Virtus Barcellona - ACR Messina	0:0

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