Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 29

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Igea Virtus Barcellona		Castrumfavara

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.65	5.15
	1.56	3.75	5.38	Watch
	1.55	3.65	5.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)	3.68 ↓ (3.8)	5.34 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Igea Virtus Barcellona
58.4%

Draw
24.6%

Castrumfavara
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

23.6%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.9%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Igea Virtus Barcellona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Castrumfavara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Igea Virtus Barcellona than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Igea Virtus Barcellona - Castrumfavara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Varela I. ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, Lanza M. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
47', 1 - 2, Vacca R. ⚽,
48', 2 - 2, Cicirello G. ⚽,
69', 3 - 2, Cicirello G. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs: ) and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Igea Virtus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Igea Virtus is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Igea Virtus won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Igea Virtus	6	3	2	1	14:11	3	11
14	Castrumfavara	6	1	1	4	5:7	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Igea Virtus Barcellona
Italian Serie D - Group I
25.03.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Reggina	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Gelbison Cilento - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nissa - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sambiase - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Igea Virtus Barcellona - Gela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTTTW
- ASD Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I
22.03.26	Castrumfavara - Sancataldese	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Vigor Lamezia - Castrumfavara	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Castrumfavara - ACR Messina	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Ragusa - Castrumfavara	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Castrumfavara - Savoia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
16.11.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Castrumfavara - Igea Virtus Barcellona	3:1

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