Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 8 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Referee: Malcevs E. (Lat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	Sport Bladet Play
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV


	Ilves		Djurgården

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2	Watch
	3.2	3.6	2
	3.3	3.6	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.55	2.04
	3.28	3.71	2.04	Watch
	3.27	3.82	2.01
	3.3	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.76)	3.61 ↑ (3.25)	2.03 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
28.3%

Draw
25.8%

Djurgården
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

28.1%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

29.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Djurgården has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Djurgården's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Djurgården than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Djurgården, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	15.8%	73.7%

Ilves - Djurgården Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Djurgården will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Djurgården: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Seppa V. (G) 22. Maenpaa A. 16. Miettunen T. (C) 5. Pikkarainen J. 3. Jorginho 14. Popovitch A. 15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 6. Arifi D. 19. Jukkola O. 7. Veteli J. 29. Haarala S.	35. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 18. Stahl A. 5. Tenho M. 3. Danielson M. (C) 27. Kosugi K. 6. Schuller R. 14. Sabovic B. 15. Fallenius O. 16. Gulliksen T. 23. Wikheim G. 11. Hummet D.
Substitutes
44. Akpudje J. 31. Bulgakov D. 24. Kante A. 2. Kivikko M. 27. Riissanen J. 10. Riski Ro. 17. Soderback M. 26. Sovelius T. 25. Tulehmo A. 32. Vayrynen L. (G) 1. Virtanen O. (G)	22. Aslund P. 19. Bergh V. 40. Croon M. (G) 7. Eriksson M. 10. Leach S. 30. Nilsson M. (G) 26. Priske A. 9. Radetinac H. 17. Therkildsen P.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Bergstrand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Haarala S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Stahl A. ↓, Therkildsen P. ↑,
47', Pikkarainen J. 🟨,
58', 0 - 1, Wikheim G. ⚽, Fallenius O. (A),
61', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
61', Jukkola O. ↓, Soderback M. ↑,
64', Sabovic B. 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Riski Ro. ⚽, Arifi D. (A),
73', Hummet D. ↓, Priske A. ↑,
73', Schuller R. ↓, Radetinac H. ↑,
73', Wikheim G. ↓, Bergh V. ↑,
83', Fallenius O. ↓, Aslund P. ↑,
90+3', Arifi D. ↓, Kante A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Ilves is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Djurgården is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ilves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Djurgården will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.08.24	Oulu - Ilves	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.24	Austria Wien - Ilves	4:4 penalties ✺
25.07.24	Ilves - Austria Wien	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
21.07.24	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2 ✺
15.07.24	Haka - Ilves	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWWWL
- Djurgårdens IF
Swedish Allsvenskan
04.08.24	Djurgården - IFK Göteborg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Progrès Niedercorn - Djurgården	1:0 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
28.07.24	Elfsborg - Djurgården	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Djurgården - Progrès Niedercorn	3:0 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
20.07.24	Kalmar - Djurgården	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLWWL

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