Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 21

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Ilves		VPS Vaasa

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.30	2.90	Watch
	2.30	3.50	2.85
	2.22	3.6	2.85	Watch
	2.36	3.74	2.93
	2.3	3.67	2.89	Watch
	2.3	3.65	2.9
	2.3	3.56	2.84	Watch
	2.24	3.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.25)	3.56 ↓ (3.62)	2.86 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
41.1%

Draw
26.3%

VPS Vaasa
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

25.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

25%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ilves - VPS Vaasa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Krkalic F. (G) 4. Pettersson O. 16. Miettunen T. 3. Rale M. 19. Bamba G. 14. Popovitch A. 15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 13. Wallius K. 30. Kanga J. (C) 9. Hytonen T. 28. Kilo J.	41. Jalloh M. (G) 2. Mane L. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 23. Niemi M. 13. Ogunniyi O. 34. Raisanen A. 8. Lima P. 7. Turfkruier J. 24. Daoussi Y. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 14. Lindholm S.
Substitutes
17. Baranov S. 11. Coulibaly H. 24. Kumpu V. 6. Raap Y. 33. Sacko Y. 8. Stjopin M. 45. Tamminen E. 7. Veteli J. 1. Virtanen O. (G)	21. Adu-Boahen A. 9. Holmelund C. 20. Odhiambo X. 25. Salomaa H. 29. Samake W. 3. Simpson R. 17. Terrnava D. 30. Vahtera J. 12. Vayrynen L. (G)
Coaches
Speranza C.	Nuorela J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Lindholm S. ⚽, Kouassivi-Benissan K. (A),
38', Kanga J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Stjopin M. ↑,
46', Kilo J. ↓, Veteli J. ↑,
67', Pettersson O. 🟨,
69', Daoussi Y. 🟨,
71', Raisanen A. ↓, Terrnava D. ↑,
76', Popovitch A. ↓, Tamminen E. ↑,
76', Bamba G. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
81', Miettunen T. ↓, Coulibaly H. ↑,
81', Daoussi Y. ↓, Simpson R. ↑,
81', Lindholm S. ↓, Holmelund C. ↑,
90', Simpson R. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ilves: Vaisanen S. (Red Card)

There will not play in VPS: Okereke E. (Red Card)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.8:1.5).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

VPS: 0.49%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	30:31	-1	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.08.26	Gnistan - Ilves	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Ilves - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.26	Ilves - IFK Mariehamn	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.26	Oulu - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTWLL
- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.08.26	VPS Vaasa - TPS	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	FF Jaro - VPS Vaasa	1:3 ✺
02.08.26	VPS Vaasa - Inter Turku	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	3:1 ✺
18.07.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.04.26	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	3:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
07.02.26	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	1:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.07.25	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2
02.05.25	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
15.02.25	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.10.24	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	0:2
21.07.24	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2

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