Match Info

Veikkausliiga

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Tehtaan Kenttä (Valkeakoski)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	Haka		Ilves

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.33	1.62	Watch
	4.1	4	1.73
				Watch
	4.84	4.42	1.65
				Watch
	4	3.8	1.75
	4.51	4.34	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.39 ↑ (3.65)	4.18 ↑ (3.82)	1.67 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Haka
21.4%

Draw
22.5%

Ilves
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

24.9%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

25.3%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Haka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Haka than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	5.9%	82.4%

Haka - Ilves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Haka (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ilves will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Haka (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ilves (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hughes L. (G) 18. Mommo E. 15. Almen M. (C) 5. Gianini Dantas N. 4. Houston J. 19. Okyere A. 64. Parfitt-Williams D. 8. Lindholm S. 10. Lucas Cini 17. Multanen K. 7. Da Sylva J.	1. Virtanen O. (C) 3. Rale M. 5. Vaisanen S. 22. Maenpaa A. 18. Ulundu V. 14. Popovitch A. 7. Veteli J. 13. Wallius K. 15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 10. Riski Ro. 17. Soderback M.
Substitutes
9. Akintunde J. 3. Friberg N. 21. Jalasvaara A. 12. Lepola A. (G) 30. Purosalo V. 13. Sallinen O. 99. Sejdiu A. 2. Talo N.	27. Akinyemi A. 9. Hytonen T. 19. Jukkola O. 30. Kanga J. 12. Krkalic F. (G) 16. Miettunen T. 21. Moisio J. 8. Stjopin M.
Coaches
Smith A.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Gianini Dantas N. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Riski Ro. (Pen),
39', Gianini Dantas N. 🟥,
42', Lucas Cini ↓, Friberg N. ↑,
42', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Stjopin M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Ulundu V. ↓, Jukkola O. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Stjopin M. ⚽, Soderback M. (A),
57', Parfitt-Williams D. ↓, Sejdiu A. ↑,
57', Multanen K. ↓, Akintunde J. ↑,
75', Wallius K. ↓, Kanga J. ↑,
75', Riski Ro. ↓, Hytonen T. ↑,
76', Lindholm S. ↓, Purosalo V. ↑,
76', Houston J. ↓, Sallinen O. ↑,
83', Kanga J. 🟨,
84', Mommo E. 🟨,
88', 0 - 3, Friberg N. (Own goal),
89', Soderback M. ↓, Moisio J. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 4, Hytonen T. ⚽, Moisio J. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Haka won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ilves is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Haka: Romero E. (Inactive) Selander R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Haka won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:31. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Haka won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.3:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 49.08%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Haka
Finnish Cup
24.06.25	Haka - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.06.25	HJK - Haka	3:1 ✺
14.06.25	Inter Turku - Haka	1:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
11.06.25	Haka - Gnistan	3:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
31.05.25	Haka - VPS Vaasa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LLTWW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
18.06.25	Ilves - SJK	2:3 ✺
14.06.25	KuPS Kuopio - Ilves	0:3 ✺
01.06.25	Gnistan - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Finnish Cup
28.05.25	Gnistan - Ilves	3:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.05.25	Ilves - Oulu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.05.25	Ilves - Haka	3:2
14.09.24	Ilves - Haka	3:2
15.07.24	Haka - Ilves	4:3
17.05.24	Ilves - Haka	5:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
16.02.24	Ilves - Haka	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
15.09.23	Haka - Ilves	2:2
04.08.23	Ilves - Haka	1:2

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