Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 31 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Generali Arena (Vienna)

Referee: McNabb I. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	ORF 1, ORF TVthek


	Austria Wien		Ilves

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	6.5	Watch
	1.32	5.25	7
	1.36	5	7
	1.39	5.22	7.2
	1.35	5.35	7.19	Watch
	1.34	5.35	7.6	Watch
	1.34	5.2	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.41)	5.27 ↑ (4.83)	7.04 ↑ (6.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austria Wien
69.1%

Draw
17.7%

Ilves
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

19.1%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

17.8%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austria Wien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Austria Wien than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Austria Wien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	14.3%	9.5%

Austria Wien - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Austria will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Ilves will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Austria: 58% – 94.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sahin-Radlinger S. (G) 26. Ranftl R. 3. Lucas Galvao 66. Martins M. 21. Guenouche H. 30. Fischer M. (C) 5. Barry A. 19. Potzmann M. 17. Gruber A. 77. Malone M. 36. Fitz D.	12. Seppa V. (G) 22. Maenpaa A. 16. Miettunen T. (C) 5. Pikkarainen J. 3. Jorginho 14. Popovitch A. 6. Arifi D. 7. Veteli J. 19. Jukkola O. 29. Haarala S. 15. Ala-Myllymaki L.
Substitutes
70. do Amaral C. R. 9. Huskovic M. 99. Kos M. (G) 40. Meisl M. 2. Pazourek L. 18. Perez Vinlof M. 24. Plavotic T. 11. Prelec N. 13. Wedl L. (G) 37. Wels M.	44. Akpudje J. 31. Bulgakov D. 2. Kivikko M. 27. Riissanen J. 10. Riski Ro. 17. Soderback M. 9. Ulundu V. 32. Vayrynen L. (G) 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Helm S.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', Guenouche H. ↓, Perez Vinlof M. ↑,
22', 1 - 0, Malone M. ⚽, Perez Vinlof M. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Gruber A. ⚽, Malone M. (A),
30', 2 - 1, Ala-Myllymaki L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
58', Ranftl R. 🟨,
61', Potzmann M. ↓, Pazourek L. ↑,
61', Malone M. ↓, Prelec N. ↑,
68', 3 - 1, Barry A. ⚽, Gruber A. (A),
78', Jorginho ↓, Ulundu V. ↑,
78', Jukkola O. ↓, Soderback M. ↑,
80', Martins M. ↓, Meisl M. ↑,
80', Gruber A. ↓, Huskovic M. ↑,
90', 3 - 2, Maenpaa A. ⚽,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
93', Huskovic M. 🟨,
95', Pikkarainen J. 🟨,
97', 4 - 2, Prelec N. ⚽,
100', Arifi D. 🟨,
100', Fitz D. 🟨,
102', Popovitch A. 🟨,
106', Maenpaa A. ↓, Akpudje J. ↑,
107', Ulundu V. 🟨,
112', 4 - 3, Soderback M. ⚽, Haarala S. (A),
116', Ranftl R. ↓, Plavotic T. ↑,
120+1', Seppa V. ↓, Virtanen O. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Arifi D. (Pen),
1, Fischer M. (Pen),
2, Popovitch A. (Pen),
2, Lucas Galvao (Pen),
3, Haarala S. (Pen),
3, Perez Vinlof M. (Pen),
4, Pikkarainen J. (Pen),
4, Meisl M. (Pen),
5, Riski Ro. (Pen),
5, Fitz D. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Austria is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ilves is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ilves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Austria is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Austria won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austria Wien
Austrian OFB Cup
28.07.24	FC Pinzgau Saalfelden - Austria Wien	0:6 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Ilves - Austria Wien	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.24	Austria Wien - Porto	1:3 ✺
13.07.24	Austria Wien - Zlín	1:0 ✺
10.07.24	Austria Wien - Bohemians Dublin	3:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLWL
- FC Ilves
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Ilves - Austria Wien	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
21.07.24	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2 ✺
15.07.24	Haka - Ilves	4:3 ✺
06.07.24	Ilves - HJK	3:0 ✺
29.06.24	Lahti - Ilves	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Ilves - Austria Wien	2:1

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