Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Independiente		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.3	5.25	Watch
	1.85	3.15	4.85	Watch
	1.81	3.29	5.8
	1.78	3.24	5.51	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.8
	1.76	3.22	6.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.66)	3.22 ↓ (3.35)	5.39 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
53%

Draw
29.4%

Defensa y Justicia
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

27.4%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Independiente - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 22. Zabala F. 23. Marcone I. 16. Perez Curci M. 28. Gutierrez M. 40. Malcorra I. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.	22. Fiermarin C. (G) 29. Fernandez D. 6. Amor E. 21. Martinez D. (C) 33. Souto L. 15. Sosa S. 10. Molinas A. 16. Portillo A. 25. Altamira F. 31. Coria A. 24. Gutierrez J.
Substitutes
1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 7. Montiel S. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F. 3. Valenzuela M.	23. Aguiar M. 36. Amade L. (G) 11. Banega E. 19. Barbona D. 26. Caceres D. 30. Fernandez D. 17. Hausch A. 55. Lopez J. 27. Pereyra E. 8. Perez C. 32. Roselli N. 18. Toloza S.
Coaches
Quinteros G.	Soso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Molinas A. (Penalty Awarded),
15', 1 - 1, Avalos G. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 2 - 1, Gutierrez M. ⚽, Avalos G. (A),
35', Zabala F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Altamira F. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
52', Perez Curci M. 🟨,
59', Sosa S. 🟨,
68', Perez Curci M. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
68', Malcorra I. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
71', Sosa S. ↓, Banega E. ↑,
71', Coria A. ↓, Hausch A. ↑,
71', Martinez D. ↓, Caceres D. ↑,
75', Gutierrez M. ↓, Montiel S. ↑,
80', Portillo A. 🟨,
85', Avalos G. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
85', Portillo A. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Millan L. ⚽, Tempone F. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Independiente is the team to beat.

There will not play in Independiente: Montiel S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Defensa y Justicia: Osorio A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Independiente: Lomonaco K. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 0.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Independiente - Racing	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.03.26	Independiente - Atenas Río Cuarto	4:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Independiente - Talleres de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
16.03.26	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWLL
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Talleres de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Instituto Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
01.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Chaco For Ever	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	San Lorenzo - Defensa y Justicia	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.06.24	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente	0:0
19.02.23	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	0:2
20.07.22	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente	2:1
20.08.21	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
18.04.21	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	1:0
06.12.20	Independiente - Defensa y Justicia	1:0
15.11.20	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente	0:0

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