Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Bolivia	ESPN 5, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 5, ESPN
Israel	Sport 1, Sport 4
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	ESPN 5, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Boca Juniors		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.75	3.7	Watch
	2.45	2.88	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3	3.53
	2.62	2.86	3.11	Watch
	2.4	2.75	3.2
	2.51	2.92	3.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.15)	2.86 ↓ (2.96)	3.35 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
38.7%

Draw
33.1%

Independiente
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

31.2%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

29.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boca Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Boca Juniors - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchesin A. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 4. Figal J. (C) 26. Pellegrino M. 27. Braida M. 38. Rey Domenech C. 21. Herrera A. 20. Velasco A. 30. Belmonte T. 29. Angel Romero 9. Gimenez M.	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 22. Zabala F. 23. Marcone I. 16. Perez Curci M. 28. Gutierrez M. 40. Malcorra I. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 36. Aranda T. 25. Ascacibar S. 28. Bareiro A. 3. Blanco L. 12. Brey L. (G) 32. Costa A. 18. Delgado M. 2. Di Lollo L. 16. Miguel Merentiel 23. Weigandt M. 7. Zeballos E.	1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 25. Pussetto I. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F. 3. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Ubeda C.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽, Avalos G. (A),
35', Abaldo M. 🟨,
45+11', 1 - 1, Gimenez M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Angel Romero ↓, Miguel Merentiel ↑,
46', Gimenez M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
68', Herrera A. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
69', Velasco A. ↓, Ascacibar S. ↑,
74', Lomonaco K. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
74', Rey Domenech C. ↓, Delgado M. ↑,
76', Avalos G. 🟨,
83', Gutierrez M. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
83', Perez Curci M. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
83', Malcorra I. ↓, Freire N. ↑,
90', Avalos G. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
90+3', Zabala F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 1.

Boca Juniors is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Independiente has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Boca Juniors may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Independiente has had a series of home games.

Boca Juniors could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Marchesin A. (Injury) Paredes L. (Yellow Cards) Zeballos E. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Pussetto I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boca Juniors: Weigandt M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Independiente: Valdez F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 6 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Boca Juniors - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.93%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Universidad Católica - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.04.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Boca Juniors - Instituto Córdoba	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
11.03.26	Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTT
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.04.26	Independiente - Racing	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.03.26	Independiente - Atenas Río Cuarto	4:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Independiente - Talleres de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
16.03.26	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.05.25	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:1
14.12.24	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0
29.07.23	Independiente - Boca Juniors	0:2
Torneos De Verano
07.01.23	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.10.22	Boca Juniors - Independiente	2:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
26.02.22	Independiente - Boca Juniors	2:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.11.21	Independiente - Boca Juniors	1:0

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