Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Presidente Peron (Cordoba)

Referee: Ramirez N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Instituto Córdoba		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3	2.75
	2.75	2.88	2.85
	2.92	2.92	2.88
	2.73	2.97	2.87	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.88
	2.72	2.86	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.91)	2.92 ↓ (3.01)	2.82 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Instituto Córdoba
34.5%

Draw
32.2%

Independiente
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

31.4%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

32.8%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Instituto Córdoba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Instituto Córdoba than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Instituto Córdoba - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Instituto will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Independiente will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Roffo M. (G) 22. Massaccesi A. 26. Mosevich L. 6. Alarcon F. R. (C) 44. Cerato G. 55. Abregu G. 19. Lodico G. A. 3. Sosa D. 20. Cordoba Mosquera J. E. 29. Jara F. 10. Luna A.	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Arias S. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 22. Zabala F. 23. Marcone I. 19. Abaldo M. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 40. Malcorra I. 25. Pussetto I. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
2. De La Fuente H. 11. Fonseca M. 15. Gallardo M. 30. Galvan J. 7. Guerra N. 21. Lazaro J. 16. Maldonado L. (G) 13. Mendez J. 5. Moyano F. 70. Ordonez G. 72. Rafaelli L. 17. Tissera M.	1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 29. Godoy L. 28. Gutierrez M. 11. Mancuello F. 8. Millan L. 16. Perez Curci M. 34. Tempone F. 43. Valdez F. 3. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Flores D.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, Luna A. ⚽,
21', Zabala F. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
34', 2 - 1, Cerato G. ⚽,
43', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
45+2', Jara F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Luna A. 🟨,
58', Jara F. ↓, Fonseca M. ↑,
58', Rodrigo Fernandez ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
66', Cordoba Mosquera J. E. ↓, Rafaelli L. ↑,
74', Roffo M. 🟨,
75', Marcone I. 🟨,
75', Pussetto I. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
75', Arias S. ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
76', Abaldo M. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
80', Lodico G. A. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
80', Luna A. ↓, Guerra N. ↑,
81', Massaccesi A. ↓, Galvan J. ↑,
88', Guerra N. 🟨,
90+1', Rafaelli L. 🟨,
90+3', Mendez J. 🟨,
90+4', Godoy L. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Instituto won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Instituto: Galvan J. (Injury) Romero J. (Injury) Suarez F. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Instituto won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Instituto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Instituto Córdoba
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.03.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Instituto Córdoba	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Instituto Córdoba - Unión Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	San Lorenzo - Instituto Córdoba	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Central Córdoba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLTWW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.03.26	Independiente - Unión Santa Fe	4:4 ✺
28.02.26	Independiente - Central Córdoba	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Independiente	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	3:2 ✺
13.02.26	Independiente - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.08.25	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	0:0
22.02.25	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	2:0
18.07.24	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	3:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
18.02.24	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	0:2
24.09.23	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.03.23	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	2:2
Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.06.14	Instituto Córdoba - Independiente	1:2

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