Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Georgia	Silk Sport 1, Silk Sport 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South
Spain	LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Universidad de Chile

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	7	Watch
	1.63	3.7	5.25
	1.58	3.55	5.9	Watch
	1.6	3.72	6.64
	1.69	3.00	6.93	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5	Watch
	1.63	3.68	6	Watch
	1.78	3.2	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.77)	3.52 ↑ (3.15)	6.01 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
57.5%

Draw
26.8%

Universidad de Chile
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

29.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

29%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.

Universidad de Chile has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Independiente - Universidad de Chile Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 4. Vera F. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 22. Zabala F. 20. Rodrigo Fernandez 5. Loyola F. 7. Montiel S. 10. Cabral L. 14. Millan L. 9. Avalos G.	25. Castellon G. (G) 5. Ramirez N. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 17. Hormazabal F. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 19. Altamirano J. 16. Sepulveda M. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 10. Assadi L. 18. Di Yorio L.
Substitutes
1. Blazquez J. (G) 39. de Irastorza J. 8. Galdames P. 29. Godoy L. 11. Mancuello F. 23. Marcone I. 17. Mazzantti W. 37. Medina J. 32. Paredes F. 25. Pussetto I. 27. Tarzia D. 53. Viollaz S.	27. Contreras R. 21. Diaz M. 9. Fernandez L. 6. Fernandez N. 12. Garrido P. (G) 11. Guerra N. 34. Moya F. 13. Retamal D. 14. Rodriguez S. 15. Salomoni F. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G)
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Assadi L. ⚽, Di Yorio L. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Montiel S. ⚽, Avalos G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sepulveda M. ↓, Salomoni F. ↑,
46', Castellon G. ↓, Toselli C. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Independiente has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Universidad de Chile has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Independiente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Independiente has had a series of away games.

Recently, Universidad de Chile has had a series of home games.

In this match, Independiente is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Independiente won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.08.25	Independiente - River Plate	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
01.08.25	Belgrano - Independiente	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.07.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
17.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Independiente	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
09.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Unión Española	4:1 ✺
04.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Cobresal	0:1 ✺
28.07.25	Unión La Calera - Universidad de Chile	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
13.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Independiente	1:0

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