Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 3

Date: 3 August 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Rey Hilfer L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, ESPN Premium
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Germany	Laola1
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		Independiente

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.85	3.10	Watch
	2.45	3.10	2.90
	2.45	3.10	3.05	Watch
	2.58	3.07	3.27
	2.52	3.16	2.95
	2.50	3.00	3.10
	2.56	3.02	3.13	Watch
	2.48	3.00	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.3)	3.04 ↑ (2.94)	3.06 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
37.8%

Draw
31.2%

Independiente
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

31.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Independiente will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 32. Silvero T. 16. Magallan L. 3. Gomez E. (C) 29. Aliendro R. 8. Robertone L. 11. Pellegrini M. 10. Valdes D. 22. Lanzini M. 15. Godoy D.	33. Rey R. (G) 29. Godoy L. 13. Fedorco J. 26. Lomonaco K. 22. Zabala F. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 28. Gutierrez M. 7. Montiel S. 19. Abaldo M. 9. Avalos G.
Substitutes
39. Aguirre T. 5. Baeza C. 34. Busso A. (G) 19. Cristaldo L. 18. Escobar S. 48. Feler L. 2. Mammana E. 47. Pereyra A. 30. Piola L. 37. Policella J. 17. Veron A. 33. Villalba F. (G)	4. Arias S. 35. Arrayago J. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 10. Cabral L. 21. Closter F. 20. Cruz F. 3. De Irastorza J. 32. Martinez D. 8. Meza M. 14. Millan L. 34. Tempone F. 18. Valdez F.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Godoy L. ↓, Arias S. ↑,
42', Godoy D. 🟨,
45+3', Gutierrez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Abaldo M. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
46', Magallan L. ↓, Mammana E. ↑,
47', Barros Schelotto G. 🟨,
53', Montiel S. 🟨,
57', Lanzini M. ↓, Escobar S. ↑,
57', Godoy D. ↓, Aguirre T. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Aguirre T. ⚽,
72', Pellegrini M. 🟨,
76', Perez Curci M. ↓, Meza M. ↑,
76', Gutierrez M. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
85', Escobar S. 🟨,
86', Pellegrini M. ↓, Feler L. ↑,
88', Robertone L. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 2.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Vélez: Andrada T. (Inactive) Gordon J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Independiente: Machuca I. (Suspended) Pussetto I. (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Fernandez (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Independiente - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.45%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield	1:3 ✺
24.07.26	Vélez Sársfield - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia La Plata	0:1 ✺
04.05.26	Vélez Sársfield - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
30.04.26	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLTW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.26	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Independiente	0:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.05.26	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.26	Rosario Central - Independiente	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	San Lorenzo - Independiente	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
31.01.26	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
16.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	2:1
12.02.25	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	3:0
Copa Argentina
27.09.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.05.24	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.01.24	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente	0:1
27.08.23	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	2:1

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