Match Info

Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Greece	Action 24
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia Plus
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
South-america	ESPN South
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente Rivadavia		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.63	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.65
	2.98	2.98	2.68	Watch
	3.04	3	2.7
	3.04	2.61	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.8
	2.93	2.98	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.74)	2.91 ↓ (3.2)	2.71 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
32.7%

Draw
32.4%

Boca Juniors
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

29.5%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

29.2%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	52.4%	47.6%

Independiente Rivadavia - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 52.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31% – 73.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Independiente R (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Boca Juniors (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Centurion E. (G) 14. Gomez L. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. 27. Souto P. 21. Cardillo M. 5. Bottari T. 24. Ortega T. 25. Amarfil M. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S. (C)	25. Marchesin A. (G) 24. Barinaga J. 40. Di Lollo L. 26. Pellegrino M. 23. Blanco L. 33. Aguirre B. 29. Battaglia R. 5. Paredes L. (C) 8. Carlos Palacios 16. Miguel Merentiel 10. Cavani E.
Substitutes
20. Barbieri J. 36. Bonifacio E. 8. Bucca L. 2. Costa L. 26. Fernandez M. 23. Marinelli G. (G) 18. Munoz S. 10. Muro T. 13. Osella A. 34. Retamar K. 11. Tonetto D. 31. Valenti M.	17. Advincula L. 15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 12. Brey L. (G) 32. Costa A. 43. Delgado M. 18. Fabra F. 4. Figal J. 9. Gimenez M. 11. Janson L. 20. Velasco A. 7. Zeballos E. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Berti A.	Russo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Carlos Palacios 🟨,
22', Souto P. 🟨,
26', Pellegrino M. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Centurion E. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Amarfil M. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
63', Souto P. ↓, Retamar K. ↑,
64', Aguirre B. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
64', Cavani E. ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
70', Carlos Palacios ↓, Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ↑,
73', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
76', Ortega T. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
83', Velasco A. 🟨,
88', 0 - 2, Zeballos E. ⚽, Alarcon Cepeda W. H. (A),
90', 0 - 3, Velasco A. ⚽, Gimenez M. (A),
90+1', Bottari T. ↓, Osella A. ↑,
90+1', Gomez L. ↓, Munoz S. ↑,
90+3', Studer S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 14).

Independiente R has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boca Juniors has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Independiente R: Peinipil M. (Injury) Ramis V. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Belmonte T. (Muscle Injury) Figal J. (Calf Injury) Herrera A. (Muscle Injury) Lema C. (Inactive) Romero S. (Knee Injury) Saracchi M. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Independiente R won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
07.08.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Independiente Rivadavia	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
30.07.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Central Córdoba de Rosario	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.07.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Belgrano	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Barracas Central - Independiente Rivadavia	0:3 ✺
13.07.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Newells Old Boys	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWTWL
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.08.25	Boca Juniors - Racing	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
23.07.25	Boca Juniors - Atlético Tucumán	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.07.25	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Argentinos Juniors - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.02.25	Boca Juniors - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0
10.08.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Boca Juniors	1:1

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