Match Info

Serie D - Round 8

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday


	Independência		Galvez

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.3	2.78
	2.32	3.42	2.8
	2.29	3.37	2.83	Watch
	2.2	3.1	2.8
	2.23	3.28	2.88
	1.88	3.4	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.85)	3.31 ↓ (3.35)	2.97 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independência
41.7%

Draw
27.6%

Galvez
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

26.8%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

26.4%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independência's form might have worsened.

Galvez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Galvez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independência, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galvez than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Galvez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independência - Galvez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(3 - 1)

Preview

Independência has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Galvez is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Independência may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Independência is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Independência won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Independência won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
17.05.26	Independência - Araguaína	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Porto Velho - Independência	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Independência - Porto Velho	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Araguaína - Independência	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WLTWT
- Galvez EC
Brazilian Serie D
03.05.26	Galvez - Guaporé	3:3 ✺
26.04.26	Humaitá - Galvez	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Porto Velho - Galvez	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
07.04.26	Águia de Marabá - Galvez	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Galvez - Araguaína	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Acreano
05.03.26	Independência - Galvez	1:2
29.03.25	Galvez - Independência	1:3
25.02.25	Galvez - Independência	0:0
20.04.23	Independência - Galvez	1:0

Independência - Galvez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide