Match Info

Copa Argentina - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Marcelo Bielsa (Rosario)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Instituto Córdoba		Lanús

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.25	2.98	2.32	Watch
	3.6	3.03	2.32
	6.66	1.31	6.66	Watch
	3.3	2.8	2.3
	3.21	2.86	2.28	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↑ (2.95)	2.68 ↓ (3.1)	3.04 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Instituto Córdoba
27.1%

Draw
38.7%

Lanús
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

29.8%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

28.6%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Instituto Córdoba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Instituto Córdoba than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Instituto Córdoba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Instituto Córdoba - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Instituto will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Roffo M. (G) 30. Galvan J. 26. Mosevich L. 6. Alarcon F. R. (C) 44. Cerato G. 55. Abregu G. 13. Mendez J. 3. Sosa D. 20. Cordoba Mosquera J. E. 10. Luna A. 7. Guerra N.	26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 35. De Jesus R. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 23. Carrera R. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W.
Substitutes
8. Acevedo J. 32. Bravo A. 2. De La Fuente H. 15. Gallardo M. 21. Lazaro J. 22. Massaccesi A. 61. Medina J. 23. Meli A. 5. Moyano F. 27. Rossi I. 35. Sittaro Miranda E. O. (G) 17. Tissera M.	38. Acosta B. 77. Besozzi L. 20. Cabrera B. 33. Guidara T. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 1. Petroli F. (G) 2. Romero L. 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M. 19. Valois Y. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Flores D.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Mendez J. 🟨,
35', Medina A. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Cordoba Mosquera J. E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Medina A. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
51', Mosevich L. 🟨,
52', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
52', Alarcon F. R. 🟨,
53', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
53', Alarcon F. R. 🟨,
60', Guerra N. ↓, Massaccesi A. ↑,
66', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
66', Bou W. ↓, Valois Y. ↑,
71', Mendez J. ↓, Gallardo M. ↑,
71', Carrera R. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
71', Luna A. ↓, Lazaro J. ↑,
76', Cordoba Mosquera J. E. ↓, Tissera M. ↑,
77', Cerato G. ↓, De La Fuente H. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Besozzi L. ⚽,
89', Aquino D. ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Lazaro J. ⚽,
90+5', De La Fuente H. 🟨,
90+11', De La Fuente H. 🟨,
90+12', Besozzi L. 🟥,

Preview

Neutral location.

Instituto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lanús is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lanús may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Instituto won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Instituto won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Instituto Córdoba
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Instituto Córdoba	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Newells Old Boys - Instituto Córdoba	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Instituto Córdoba - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Instituto Córdoba	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Instituto Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTLWW
- CA Lanús
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Lanús - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
20.05.26	LDU Quito - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.05.26	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Always Ready - Lanús	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Lanús - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:2
28.09.25	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	0:0
16.03.25	Lanús - Instituto Córdoba	4:1
07.12.24	Lanús - Instituto Córdoba	2:0
25.07.23	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:1

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