Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 6
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 6
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 6
Ecuador	ESPN 6
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 6
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 6, Inter


	LDU Quito		Lanús

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.33	Watch
	2	3.3	3.7
	1.85	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.9	3.39	4.54
	1.87	3.42	4.33	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4	Watch
	1.94	3.44	4.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.12)	3.37 ↑ (3.19)	4.2 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
49.7%

Draw
27.9%

Lanús
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

29.6%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.2%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in LDU Quito's performance.

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with LDU Quito that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

LDU Quito - Lanús Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: LDU Quito will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): LDU Quito will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valle G. (G) 14. Quintero J. (C) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 4. Ade R. 33. Quinonez L. 23. Quinonez Y. 20. Cornejo F. 8. Pretell J. 15. Villamil G. 16. Deyverson 11. Estrada M.	26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 5. Pena Biafore F. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 19. Valois Y.
Substitutes
10. Alvarado A. 26. Caicedo J. 21. Castillo E. 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 99. Luna Tobar C. 9. Medina J. 27. Mina R. 3. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 7. Redes R. 44. Segovia L.	25. Aquino D. 77. Besozzi L. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 37. De Martis T. 17. Medina A. 3. Morgantini N. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Tiago Nunes	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Pellegrino M. 🟨,
37', Cardozo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Carrera R. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
46', Villamil G. ↓, Luna Tobar C. ↑,
59', Valois Y. ↓, Cabrera B. ↑,
63', Deyverson ↓, Redes R. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Pena Biafore F. (Own goal),
77', Losada N. 🟨,
77', Quintero J. 🟨,
78', Canale Dominguez J. 🟨,
79', Salvio E. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
80', Marcich S. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
83', Cardozo A. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
83', Quinonez Y. ↓, Segovia L. ↑,
84', Estrada M. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
88', Pretell J. ↓, Minda K. ↑,
90', Segovia L. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 0, Cornejo F. ⚽, Medina J. (A),
90+3', Cornejo F. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, LDU Quito is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lanús: Loaiza R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in LDU Quito: Corozo J. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, LDU Quito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

LDU Quito: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.05.26	LDU Quito - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.05.26	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.05.26	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Always Ready - Lanús	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Lanús - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Lanús - Central Córdoba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
21.08.24	Lanús - LDU Quito	3:1
14.08.24	LDU Quito - Lanús	1:2

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