Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 5

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Santa Maria)


	Inter Santa Maria		Monsoon

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.9	3.8	Watch
				Watch
	1.93	3.11	4.34	Watch
	1.95	2.8	3.8
	1.97	2.93	3.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.81)	2.94 ↓ (3.2)	3.98 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inter Santa Maria
46.4%

Draw
30.8%

Monsoon
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

29%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

28.9%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inter Santa Maria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Monsoon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inter Santa Maria than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monsoon than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Inter Santa Maria - Monsoon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Iago Hass (G) 94. Otavio Passos 14. Salazar L. 3. Tairone (C) 5. Mateus Santana 18. Julio Simas 8. Mossoro 98. Joao Felipe 7. Laion 28. Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. 99. Michel Henrique	1. Igor Pavan (G) 2. Camargo 3. Yago Alves 14. Ricardo Thalheimer (C) 6. Para 8. Vinicius Garcia 5. Leo Hanna 11. Matheus Candido 10. Luan Santos 7. Caio Rangel 9. Fabinho Polhao
Substitutes
6. Chico Bala 30. Correa L. C. 19. Guedes I. 22. Itaqui 11. Jarro Pedroso 4. Marcao 34. Marco Freitas 27. Marquinhos 1. Rafael Copetti (G) 10. Vitor Junior 17. Wilson Junior 9. Yuri Mamute	16. Carlos Gabriel 19. Hannyel 21. Henrique Marcos 4. Hiago Cena 13. Jonathan Cabeca 12. Marcelo Ribeiro (G) 15. Medina F. 18. Mikael Costa 20. Rick Sena 17. Talyssson Lalau
Coaches
Wiliam Campos	Costa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Leo Hanna 🟨,
36', Mossoro 🟨,
38', Joao Felipe 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Camargo ↓, Medina F. ↑,
46', Otavio Passos ↓, Chico Bala ↑,
46', Michel Henrique ↓, Jarro Pedroso ↑,
46', Luan Santos ↓, Jonathan Cabeca ↑,
46', Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
51', Medina F. 🟨,
58', 0 - 1, Fabinho Polhao ⚽, Matheus Candido (A),
66', Joao Felipe ↓, Yuri Mamute ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Mateus Santana ⚽, Laion (A),
72', Matheus Candido ↓, Henrique Marcos ↑,
79', Vinicius Garcia ↓, Rick Sena ↑,
82', Julio Simas ↓, Guedes I. ↑,
84', Fabinho Polhao ↓, Hannyel ↑,
90+9', Chico Bala 🟨,
90+10', Carlos Gabriel 🟨,
90+10', Jonathan Cabeca 🟨,
90+10', Iago Hass 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Inter SM is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Inter SM won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Inter SM won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inter Santa Maria
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1 ✺
05.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Inter Santa Maria - Avenida	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTTW
- Monsoon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
23.02.26	Monsoon - Avenida	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Avenida - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
09.02.26	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
16.06.24	Inter Santa Maria - Monsoon	3:0
08.06.24	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1

Inter Santa Maria - Monsoon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide