Match Info

Canadian Premier League

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: York Lions Stadium (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Alayass M. (Can)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	OneSoccer


	Inter Toronto		Valour

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.9	4.65
	1.61	4.12	4.77
	1.32	4.59	10.60	Watch
	1.59	3.84	4.77	Watch
	1.78	3.55	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.78)	4 ↑ (3.53)	5.76 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inter Toronto
60.1%

Draw
23.6%

Valour
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

25.3%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

24.6%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inter Toronto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Inter Toronto's performance.

Valour has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valour might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Toronto than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Inter Toronto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valour than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valour could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Inter Toronto - Valour Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Urtiaga D. (G) 5. Sturing F. 8. Adekugbe E. (C) 7. Yeates S. 16. Ferrari M. 17. Lopez L. 21. Kibato K. 6. Botello O. 19. Jimoh S. 11. Ferrin M. 18. Altobelli J.	1. Himaras E. (G) 2. Alarcon R. 4. Konincks D. 23. Facchineri G. 30. Antonoglou T. 27. Ohin R. (C) 11. Twardek K. 80. Froese K. 8. Ressurreicao D. 17. Faria J. 21. Morgan M.
Substitutes
20. Bitar G. 28. Costa J. N. 15. DaSilva C. 23. Ferrazzo R. 9. Hundal S. 12. Pavela I. (G) 10. Reid A.	5. Egwu K. 28. Figueiredo B. 99. Gazdov E. (G) 9. Pop E. 3. Romeo R. 20. Venancio X. 18. Voytsekhovskyi M.
Coaches
Eustaquio M.	Dos Santos P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', Antonoglou T. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Altobelli J. ⚽, Ferrin M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Altobelli J. 🟨,
62', Twardek K. ↓, Figueiredo B. ↑,
65', Figueiredo B. 🟨,
66', Altobelli J. ↓, Hundal S. ↑,
66', Ferrin M. ↓, Reid A. ↑,
72', Alarcon R. 🟨,
76', Ressurreicao D. ↓, Venancio X. ↑,
76', Froese K. ↓, Pop E. ↑,
77', Lopez L. ↓, Bitar G. ↑,
77', Alarcon R. ↓, Egwu K. ↑,
80', Bitar G. 🟨,
84', Jimoh S. ↓, DaSilva C. ↑,
88', Faria J. ↓, Romeo R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, York United won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Valour may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, York United is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, York United won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, York United won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.6:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inter Toronto FC
Canadian Premier League
21.09.25	Vancouver FC - Inter Toronto	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Inter Toronto - Atlético Ottawa	2:2 ✺
05.09.25	Inter Toronto - Cavalry	3:1 ✺
01.09.25	HFX Wanderers - Inter Toronto	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Inter Toronto - Pacific FC	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTWLW
- Valour FC
Canadian Premier League
20.09.25	Cavalry - Valour	3:0 ✺
11.09.25	Valour - Forge	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Vancouver FC - Valour	2:5 ✺
31.08.25	Valour - Pacific FC	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	HFX Wanderers - Valour	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Canadian Premier League
17.08.25	Valour - Inter Toronto	0:0
13.07.25	Inter Toronto - Valour	3:2
16.05.25	Valour - Inter Toronto	2:1
13.09.24	Inter Toronto - Valour	1:1
11.08.24	Valour - Inter Toronto	0:1
27.06.24	Valour - Inter Toronto	1:0
10.05.24	Inter Toronto - Valour	3:1

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