Match Info

Championship - Round 8

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Tulloch Caledonian Stadium (Inverness)

Referee: Stuart P. (Sco)


	Inverness		Greenock Morton

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.2	8
	1.33	4.60	7.25
	1.33	4.6	8	Watch
	1.34	5.05	9.13
	1.36	4.76	8.5	Watch
	1.32	5	9
	1.28	4.55	9.5	Watch
	1.34	4.8	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.53)	4.7 ↑ (3.98)	8.45 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inverness
69.4%

Draw
19.6%

Greenock Morton
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.4%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

18.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inverness has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Inverness's performance.

Greenock Morton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inverness than the current prediction. (-20.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Inverness that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greenock Morton than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Greenock Morton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Inverness - Greenock Morton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Inverness (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Inverness (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Inverness will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Inverness (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Munro R. (G) 2. MacLeod C. 6. Devine D. (C) 5. Savage R. 4. Shinnie G. 7. Allan P. 8. Mackinnon A. 16. Duncan R. 35. Stewart A. 11. Longstaff L. 9. Stewart L.	31. Kinnear B. (G) 2. Ballantyne C. 4. Cupps C. 5. Croker P. 6. Okike C. 21. Gillespie G. (C) 19. Robertson K. 17. Bashir S. 20. Sandilands C. 27. Wilson I. 10. Brophy E.
Substitutes
36. Bavidge A. 3. Boutin N. 26. MacGregor R. 12. MacKay D. 20. Osong D. E. 21. Ross L. (G) 15. Smith K.	35. Black D. 12. Borso D. 25. Carse M. 52. Fairnie L. 7. Garrity M. 40. Greenock A. 41. Murdoch S. (G) 28. Murphy L. 30. O’Toole J.
Coaches
Kellacher S.	Murray I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Allan P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sandilands C. ↓, Fairnie L. ↑,
48', Fairnie L. 🟨,
50', Duncan R. ↓, Bavidge A. ↑,
59', Wilson I. 🟨,
61', Bashir S. ↓, Garrity M. ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Bavidge A. ⚽,
71', Brophy E. ↓, Borso D. ↑,
74', Stewart L. ↓, Osong D. E. ↑,
84', Robertson K. ↓, Carse M. ↑,
87', Longstaff L. ↓, MacKay D. ↑,
87', Stewart A. ↓, MacGregor R. ↑,
90+4', Mackinnon A. 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 8th and 10th in the Relegation ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inverness won 3.

In recent outings, Inverness has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Greenock is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

In this match, Inverness enters as the overwhelming favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Inverness has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:24 (averaging 1.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Inverness against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 11:9 goals (averaging 1.2:1 per game).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Inverness: 4.71% Morton: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Inverness	8	2	4	2	9:9	0	10
10	Morton	9	0	1	8	5:17	-12	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inverness CT
Scottish Football Championship
19.09.26	Livingston - Inverness	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Ayr United - Inverness	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Inverness - Raith Rovers	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Stenhousemuir - Inverness	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Inverness - Partick Thistle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLLT
- Greenock Morton
Scottish Football Championship
19.09.26	Greenock Morton - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
11.09.26	Greenock Morton - Livingston	1:4 ✺
05.09.26	Queens Park - Greenock Morton	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Greenock Morton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Greenock Morton - Inverness	0:1
Scottish Football Championship
03.05.24	Inverness - Greenock Morton	3:1
02.03.24	Greenock Morton - Inverness	0:2
30.12.23	Inverness - Greenock Morton	0:0
12.12.23	Greenock Morton - Inverness	2:1
01.04.23	Greenock Morton - Inverness	1:2
04.02.23	Inverness - Greenock Morton	2:2

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