Match Info

GREECE: SUPER LEAGUE - RELEGATION GROUP - ROUND 28

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis (Athens)

Referee: Gamaris A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Cyprus	PrimeTel


	Ionikos Nikaias		Asteras Tripolis

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.75	Watch
	1.93	2.95	4.6
	1.9	3.05	4.35
	1.94	3.13	4.71
	1.91	2.9	4.33
	1.96	3.14	4.33	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.57)	3.07 ↑ (2.98)	4.51 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ionikos Nikaias
48.7%

Draw
30.5%

Asteras Tripolis
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

31%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ionikos Nikaias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ionikos Nikaias's performance.

Asteras Tripolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Asteras Tripolis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ionikos Nikaias than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ionikos Nikaias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Asteras Tripolis than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Asteras Tripolis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	14.8%	11.1%

Ionikos Nikaias - Asteras Tripolis Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Ionikos will win (votes: 40 - 74.1%). Asteras Tripolis will win (votes: 6 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ionikos: 62.4% – 85.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This event has small quality 21, small importance 30, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ionikos won 3.

Ionikos is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Asteras Tripolis is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Ionikos is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Ionikos won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ionikos won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ionikos Nikaias
Greek Super League
18.03.23	Atromitos Athens - Ionikos Nikaias	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Ionikos Nikaias - Asteras Tripolis	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	PAOK - Ionikos Nikaias	6:0 ✺
26.02.23	Ionikos Nikaias - OFI	0:2 ✺
19.02.23	Panetolikos - Ionikos Nikaias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL
- Asteras Tripolis
Greek Super League
18.03.23	Asteras Tripolis - Panetolikos	2:1 ✺
12.03.23	Ionikos Nikaias - Asteras Tripolis	1:0 ✺
04.03.23	Asteras Tripolis - Atromitos Athens	1:1 ✺
25.02.23	AEK Athens - Asteras Tripolis	2:0 ✺
18.02.23	Asteras Tripolis - PAS Giannina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
12.03.23	Ionikos Nikaias - Asteras Tripolis	1:0
14.11.22	Asteras Tripolis - Ionikos Nikaias	1:0
09.04.22	Asteras Tripolis - Ionikos Nikaias	2:3
12.02.22	Asteras Tripolis - Ionikos Nikaias	2:3
20.11.21	Ionikos Nikaias - Asteras Tripolis	1:1
Club Friendly
01.08.21	Asteras Tripolis - Ionikos Nikaias	4:0

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