Match Info

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 4

Date: 26 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Portman Road (Ipswich)

Referee: Madley R. (Eng)


	Ipswich Town		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.25
	2.35	3.3	3.2
	2.26	3.54	3.3
	2.1	3	3.2
	2.19	3.38	3.32	Watch
	2.24	3.45	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (3.03)	3.36 ↑ (3.01)	3.25 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ipswich Town
42.7%

Draw
28.1%

Leeds United
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

30.9%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

32.4%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ipswich Town's performance.

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leeds United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ipswich Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	10%	15%

Ipswich Town - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Ipswich will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Leeds will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ipswich: 56% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Hladky V. (G) 2. Clarke H. 6. Woolfenden L. 15. Burgess C. 3. Davis L. 7. Burns W. 5. Morsy S. (C) 10. Chaplin C. 25. Luongo M. 33. Broadhead N. 19. Jackson K.	1. Meslier I. (G) 2. Ayling L. 14. Rodon J. 21. Struijk P. 25. Byram S. 29. Gnonto W. 22. Gray A. 24. Rutter G. 4. Ampadu E. 23. Sinisterra L. 7. Piroe J.
Substitutes
12. Ball D. 4. Edmundson G. 8. Evans L. 11. Harness M. 20. Hutchinson O. 9. Ladapo F. 13. Slicker C. (G) 14. Taylor J. 18. Williams B.	5. Cresswell C. 28. Darlow K. (G) 37. Drameh C. 30. Gelhardt J. 19. Greenwood S. 18. Gyabi D. 33. Hjelde L. F. 17. Shackleton J. 10. Summerville C.
Coaches
McKenna K.	Farke D.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ipswich won 2.

Ipswich in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Leeds is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ipswich could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Ipswich will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ipswich: Walton C. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Dallas S. (Broken Leg) Summerville C. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bamford P. (Injury) Firpo J. (Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ipswich won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Ipswich won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ipswich Town
English League Championship
19.08.23	Queens Park Rangers - Ipswich Town	0:1 ✺
12.08.23	Ipswich Town - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
09.08.23	Ipswich Town - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
English League Championship
06.08.23	Sunderland - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.23	Ipswich Town - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWWT
- Leeds United
English League Championship
18.08.23	Leeds United - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
12.08.23	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
09.08.23	Leeds United - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
06.08.23	Leeds United - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.23	Hearts - Leeds United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
05.05.19	Ipswich Town - Leeds United	3:2
24.10.18	Leeds United - Ipswich Town	2:0
13.01.18	Ipswich Town - Leeds United	1:0
23.09.17	Leeds United - Ipswich Town	3:2
18.02.17	Ipswich Town - Leeds United	1:1
24.09.16	Leeds United - Ipswich Town	1:0
12.01.16	Ipswich Town - Leeds United	2:1

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