Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Birmingham City		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.15
	3.2	3.55	2.18
	3.29	3.54	2.24
	11.70	4.14	1.36	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.1
	3.3	3.44	2.11	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.46)	3.56 ↑ (3.43)	2.04 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
22.5%

Draw
28.2%

Leeds United
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

27.3%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

27.7%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Birmingham City - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Leeds will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 37. Panzo J. 4. Klarer C. (C) 31. Wagner K. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Doyle T. 23. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 10. Gray D. 29. Priske A.	1. Lucas Perri (G) 23. Bornauw S. 15. Bijol J. 3. Gudmundsson G. 29. Gnonto W. 8. Longstaff S. 22. Tanaka A. 24. Justin J. (C) 40. Buonanotte F. 19. Okafor N. 14. Nmecha L.
Substitutes
25. Beadle J. (G) 43. Betteka Z. 45. Burrell B. 33. Ducksch M. 27. Fujimoto K. 1. Mayo B. (G) 5. Neumann P. 17. Osman I. 16. Roberts P.	11. Aaronson B. 4. Ampadu E. 2. Bogle J. 25. Byram S. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 26. Darlow K. (G) 44. Gruev I. 10. Piroe J. 6. Rodon J.
Coaches
Davies C.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Solis Romero J. E. 🟨,
42', Vicente C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Buonanotte F. ↓, Ampadu E. ↑,
46', Gray D. ↓, Osman I. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Nmecha L. ⚽, Okafor N. (A),
68', Gnonto W. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
68', Nmecha L. ↓, Calvert-Lewin D. ↑,
74', Vicente C. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,
74', Priske A. ↓, Ducksch M. ↑,
78', Tanaka A. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
83', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
83', Okafor N. ↓, Bogle J. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Roberts P. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Panzo J. ↓, Neumann P. ↑,
110', Klarer C. 🟨,
114', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Betteka Z. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Stansfield J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ducksch M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Doyle T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Aaronson B. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Roberts P. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Longstaff S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2.

Birmingham is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leeds might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Birmingham won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Leeds: 1.6% Birmingham: 0.51%

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.64%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
10.02.26	Birmingham City - West Bromwich Albion	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Birmingham City - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Oxford United - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWTW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leeds United - Arsenal	0:4 ✺
26.01.26	Everton - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.01.24	Leeds United - Birmingham City	3:0
12.08.23	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0
29.12.19	Birmingham City - Leeds United	4:5
19.10.19	Leeds United - Birmingham City	1:0
06.04.19	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0
22.09.18	Leeds United - Birmingham City	1:2
30.12.17	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0

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