Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Andorra	13:00	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	09:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	23:00	Stan Sport
Austria	13:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	09:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	14:00	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	07:00	SportsNet 1, Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
China	20:00	Migu
Croatia	13:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	14:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	13:00	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	13:00	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Finland	14:00	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	13:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	13:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	14:00	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong Kong	20:00	M Plus Live, Now Sports 651
Hungary	13:00	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	12:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	17:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	19:00	Vidio
Israel	14:00	Sport 2
Italy	13:00	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	21:00	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	18:00	Sport+
Kenya	15:00	Gotv
Kosovo	13:00	Arena Premium 2
Macao	20:00	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	20:00	Astro Football, Astro Go, SKY NET Sports X, Sooka
Maldives	17:00	Medianet
Malta	13:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	06:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	13:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	13:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	13:00	Viaplay
Pakistan	17:00	Tapmad
Peru	07:00	Disney+
Poland	13:00	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app
Portugal	12:00	Sport TV3
Romania	14:00	Voyo
Serbia	13:00	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	13:00	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
Slovenia	13:00	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	14:00	SuperSport Premier League
South Korea	21:00	Coupang Play
Sweden	13:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	13:00	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	15:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	14:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	12:00	BBC Radio 5 Live, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	09:00	Disney+
Usa	07:00	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	08:00	Disney+
Vietnam	19:00	FPT Play
International	12:00	Daystar Pacific


	Birmingham City		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.15
	3.2	3.55	2.18
	3.29	3.54	2.24
	11.70	4.14	1.36	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.1
	3.3	3.44	2.11	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.46)	3.56 ↑ (3.43)	2.04 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
22.5%

Draw
28.2%

Leeds United
49.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.1%

27.3%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

27.4%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Birmingham City - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Leeds will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 37. Panzo J. 4. Klarer C. (C) 31. Wagner K. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Doyle T. 23. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 10. Gray D. 29. Priske A.	1. Lucas Perri (G) 23. Bornauw S. 15. Bijol J. 3. Gudmundsson G. 29. Gnonto W. 8. Longstaff S. 22. Tanaka A. 24. Justin J. (C) 40. Buonanotte F. 19. Okafor N. 14. Nmecha L.
Substitutes
25. Beadle J. (G) 43. Betteka Z. 45. Burrell B. 33. Ducksch M. 27. Fujimoto K. 1. Mayo B. (G) 5. Neumann P. 17. Osman I. 16. Roberts P.	11. Aaronson B. 4. Ampadu E. 2. Bogle J. 25. Byram S. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 26. Darlow K. (G) 44. Gruev I. 10. Piroe J. 6. Rodon J.
Coaches
Davies C.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Solis Romero J. E. 🟨,
42', Vicente C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Buonanotte F. ↓, Ampadu E. ↑,
46', Gray D. ↓, Osman I. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Nmecha L. ⚽, Okafor N. (A),
68', Gnonto W. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
68', Nmecha L. ↓, Calvert-Lewin D. ↑,
74', Vicente C. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,
74', Priske A. ↓, Ducksch M. ↑,
78', Tanaka A. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
83', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
83', Okafor N. ↓, Bogle J. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Roberts P. ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Panzo J. ↓, Neumann P. ↑,
110', Klarer C. 🟨,
114', Solis Romero J. E. ↓, Betteka Z. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Stansfield J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ducksch M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Doyle T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Aaronson B. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Roberts P. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Longstaff S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 2.

Birmingham is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leeds might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Birmingham won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Leeds: 1.84% Birmingham: 0.56%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
10.02.26	Birmingham City - West Bromwich Albion	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Birmingham City - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Oxford United - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWTW
- Leeds United
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leeds United - Arsenal	0:4 ✺
26.01.26	Everton - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.01.24	Leeds United - Birmingham City	3:0
12.08.23	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0
29.12.19	Birmingham City - Leeds United	4:5
19.10.19	Leeds United - Birmingham City	1:0
06.04.19	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0
22.09.18	Leeds United - Birmingham City	1:2
30.12.17	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:0

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