Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Sergio León Chavez (Irapuato)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Irapuato		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.65	Watch
	1.83	3.77	3.85	Watch
	1.92	3.52	3.73	Watch
	1.83	3.62	3.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)	3.58 ↓ (3.77)	3.8 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Irapuato
49.6%

Draw
25.9%

Atlético Morelia
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

24.8%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

25.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Irapuato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1%)

Irapuato - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Irapuato (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Hernandez H. (C) 3. Alvarado V. 2. Doldan J. 5. Elbis 28. Gamboa J. 31. Pena R. 10. Rangel J. 24. Rodriguez A. 34. Ruiz J. 16. Sandoval R. 19. Santana C.	1. Torres A. (C) 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 11. Figueroa B. 16. Garcia U. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. 32. Moreno G. 20. Palma A. 22. Parra D. 24. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
14. de Alba J. 6. del Angel E. 1. Magana G. (G) 13. Martinez R. 22. Munoz G. 9. Pucheta J. 4. Rivera M. 25. Sanchez B. 26. Santillan E. 23. Zamudio J.	23. Esqueda D. 28. Flores A. 19. Gallegos D. 7. Islas O. 85. Munoz J. (G) 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 31. Vivas J. F.
Coaches
Alcantar D.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Moreno G. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Figueroa B. ⚽, Dominguez M. (A),
30', Parra D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Santana C. ↓, Pucheta J. ↑,
53', Garcia U. 🟨,
63', Figueroa B. 🟨,
72', Dominguez M. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
72', Figueroa B. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
73', Sandoval R. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
73', Pena R. ↓, Munoz G. ↑,
84', Martinez J. ↓, Islas O. ↑,
85', Martinez R. 🟨,
85', Gamboa J. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
85', Martinez J. ↓, Vivas J. F. ↑,
85', Palma A. ↓, Gallegos D. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Sanchez B. (Pen),
90', Sanchez B. 🟨,
90+3', Doldan J. ↓, Santillan E. ↑,
90+3', Ochoa Brandon 🟥,
90+3', Hernandez H. 🟨,
90+6', Pucheta J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Irapuato has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético Morelia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético Morelia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Irapuato is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Irapuato won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Irapuato won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Irapuato - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:2 ✺
12.11.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Irapuato	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Irapuato	2:2 ✺
31.10.25	Irapuato - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTTTW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
13.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0
18.10.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	0:3

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