Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Referee: Armenta J. E. H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Atlético Morelia		Irapuato

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.45	3.35	Watch
	2.05	3.61	3.58
	1.99	3.67	3.47	Watch
	2	3.3	3.25
	1.97	3.38	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.05)	3.48 ↑ (3.32)	3.41 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
46.3%

Draw
26.6%

Irapuato
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27.6%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.5%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Irapuato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Irapuato than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Atlético Morelia - Irapuato Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 13. Andrade A. 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 3. Hernandez S. 8. Martinez J. (C) 32. Moreno G. 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 20. Palma A. 4. Zamora D.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 8. Cruz C. 5. Elbis 28. Gamboa J. 27. Martinez G. 31. Pena R. 10. Rangel J. 24. Rodriguez A. 36. Salazar J. 25. Sanchez B. 16. Sandoval R.
Substitutes
7. Aguilera A. D. 119. Avila Jaimes H. E. 6. Botello O. 150. Conejo J. 23. Esqueda D. 28. Flores A. 34. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 10. Munoz Z. 30. Sandoval L. 31. Vivas J. F.	3. Alvarado V. 35. Cabanas A. (G) 6. del Angel E. 33. Gonzalez R. 29. Gutierrez L. 22. Munoz G. 14. Rubio R. 34. Ruiz J. 19. Santana C. 26. Santillan E.
Coaches
Ortiz M.	Alcantar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Palma A. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, del Campo R. ⚽, Moreno G. (A),
42', Martinez G. 🟨,
43', Zamora D. 🟨,
45+3', Andrade A. 🟨,
45+3', Sanchez B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nambo M. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
54', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
65', Pena R. 🟨,
66', Salazar J. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
66', Gamboa J. ↓, Santana C. ↑,
66', Sanchez B. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
72', Martinez J. ↓, Aguilera A. D. ↑,
80', Pasquel Colin R. 🟨,
82', Moreno G. ↓, Avila Jaimes H. E. ↑,
82', Dominguez M. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Munoz Z. ⚽, del Campo R. (A),
87', Cruz C. ↓, Munoz G. ↑,
87', Rangel J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In recent matches, Atlético Morelia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Irapuato has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Morelia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético Morelia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Morelia - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.89%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.03.26	Tapatío - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético Morelia - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Atlante - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLWW
- Irapuato
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.03.26	Irapuato - Cancún	2:2 ✺
13.03.26	Correcaminos UAT - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Irapuato - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	6:2 ✺
25.02.26	Irapuato - Atlante	0:5 ✺
20.02.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.11.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	1:1
19.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Irapuato	0:0
18.10.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	0:3

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