Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Ramirez Gutierrez E. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cancún		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.7	Watch
	1.89	3.77	4.08
	1.86	3.65	3.87	Watch
	1.87	3.64	3.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.86)	3.64 ↑ (3.52)	3.86 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
50.1%

Draw
25.7%

Atlético Morelia
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

26.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

26.6%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Cancún - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cancún will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cancún (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrade C. (G) 9. Diaz J. 23. Galindo B. (C) 3. Hernandez J. 18. Montiel S. 6. Ochoa I. 4. Reyes R. 12. Rodriguez J. 11. Trejo C. 24. Unjanque J. 10. Uscanga P.	1. Torres A. (C) 9. del Campo R. 14. Dominguez M. 23. Esqueda D. 11. Figueroa B. 16. Garcia U. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. 32. Moreno G. 20. Palma A. 24. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
7. Alonzo J. 26. Arce E. (G) 14. Campos K. 5. Chavez A. 2. Guzman G. 15. Hernandez M. 8. Melendre F. 20. Rosales A. 28. Solano A. 22. Soria E.	19. Gallegos D. 7. Islas O. 85. Munoz J. (G) 17. Nambo M. 29. Ochoa Brandon 22. Parra D. 30. Sandoval L. 31. Vivas J. F.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Unjanque J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hernandez J. ↓, Alonzo J. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Galindo B. ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
53', Martinez J. 🟨,
57', Martinez J. ↓, Sandoval L. ↑,
61', Dominguez M. 🟨,
64', Dominguez M. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
75', Montiel S. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
77', del Campo R. ↓, Parra D. ↑,
77', Figueroa B. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
80', Parra D. 🟨,
84', Ochoa I. 🟨,
85', Palma A. ↓, Vivas J. F. ↑,
90', Uscanga P. ↓, Campos K. ↑,
90+1', Ochoa I. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Vazquez B. (Pen),
90+7', Sandoval L. 🟥,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-3. 2nd leg.

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 3.

Recent performances by Cancún have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Morelia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético Morelia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cancún is a strong favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cancún won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Cancún - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.8%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Atlante - Cancún	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Cancún - Correcaminos UAT	5:0 ✺
17.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Cancún	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLTWW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.11.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	3:1
23.08.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	5:0
12.04.25	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	2:1
25.10.24	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	3:1
14.03.24	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	0:1
19.08.23	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	2:0
01.03.23	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	1:0

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