Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tlaxcala		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.98	3.4	2.18	Watch
	2.74	3.39	2.36	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.19	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.74)	3.37 ↓ (3.39)	2.22 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
31.7%

Draw
27.1%

Atlético Morelia
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

27.2%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.4%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Mendoza H. (G) 28. Becerra L. 19. Castaneda S. 17. Castillo E. 9. Christian 12. Lazaro J. 25. Rojas H. 11. Salomon O. 31. Silva J. 16. Solis E. (C) 21. Zaragoza A.	1. Torres A. (G) 9. del Campo R. 10. Figueroa F. 19. Gallegos D. 16. Garcia U. 8. Martinez J. 26. Martinez J. 2. Ortega W. 20. Palma A. 5. Torres D. (C) 24. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
18. Buganza F. 5. Esnaider F. 4. Fabio Erins 6. Gonzalez Martinez J. D. 2. Gonzalez P. 1. Mata F. (G) 34. Morales A. 27. Partida F. 24. Robles E. 15. Tejeda D.	14. Dominguez M. 23. Esqueda D. 32. Moreno G. 85. Munoz J. (G) 17. Nambo M. 30. Sandoval L. 31. Vivas J. F.
Coaches
Fabian M.	Ortiz M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Castaneda S. 🟨,
32', Martinez J. 🟨,
43', Silva J. ↓, Fabio Erins ↑,
45+3', Zaragoza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rojas H. ↓, Gonzalez P. ↑,
49', Torres D. 🟨,
58', Gallegos D. 🟨,
63', Salomon O. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
63', Becerra L. ↓, Partida F. ↑,
68', Gallegos D. ↓, Esqueda D. ↑,
73', Palma A. 🟥,
76', Figueroa F. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
79', Castaneda S. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
83', del Campo R. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
83', Martinez J. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Nambo M. ⚽,
90+2', Torres A. 🟨,
90+4', Lazaro J. 🟨,
90+8', Dominguez M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 0.

In recent matches, Tlaxcala has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético Morelia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tlaxcala may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:25. (average 0.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.10.25	Dorados - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Atlante - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
19.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TTLTW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
26.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Leones Negros UdeG	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Irapuato - Atlético Morelia	0:3 ✺
11.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.04.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	1:1
31.10.24	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	2:1
08.02.24	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	3:1
20.09.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	2:3
06.01.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:0
05.07.22	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	2:0
09.01.22	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	0:4

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