Match Info

HNL - Round 35

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Aldo Drosina (Pula)

Referee: Pejin T. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Istra 1961		Šibenik

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.6	5
	1.71	3.6	4.8	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.7
	1.66	3.73	5.12
	1.73	3.61	4.76	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.8
	1.66	3.8	5.11	Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.61)	3.62 ↓ (3.76)	4.87 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Istra 1961
55%

Draw
25.8%

Šibenik
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.9%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.8%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Šibenik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Istra 1961, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Šibenik than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Istra 1961 - Šibenik Predictions

Users Predictions: Istra 1961 will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Istra 1961 will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Majkic L. (C) 23. Valincic M. 4. Maresic D. 5. Koski V. 97. Kadusic A. 44. Loncar S. 30. Radosevic J. 8. Mauric A. 11. Lisica M. 29. Gagua G. 24. Rozic V.	40. Filipovic I. (G) 55. Peric S. 15. Agyemang M. 44. Zuta L. 43. Grzan S. 5. Cvek L. 8. Bakic O. 32. Durakovic E. 36. Kavelj A. 18. Santini I. (C) 11. Laca I.
Substitutes
7. Blagojevic S. 16. Bogdan L. 27. Calusic I. 22. Djuric D. 57. Fucak K. 26. Heister M. 12. Jursic M. (G) 17. Keller S. 1. Kolic F. (G) 70. Lawal S. 36. Ramic I. 6. Robertsson L. H.	70. Jakolis A. 22. Kolega T. 17. Koscevic Z. 27. Kulusic L. 3. Liu A. 25. Mohorovic P. (G) 28. Roca I. 30. Zdunic B.
Coaches
Garcia G.	Vidovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Rozic V. ⚽, Radosevic J. (A),
4', 2 - 0, Rozic V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kavelj A. ↓, Roca I. ↑,
46', Peric S. ↓, Kolega T. ↑,
63', Mauric A. ↓, Blagojevic S. ↑,
63', Gagua G. ↓, Fucak K. ↑,
63', Bakic O. ↓, Kulusic L. ↑,
71', Rozic V. ↓, Lawal S. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Loncar S. ⚽, Kadusic A. (A),
75', Roca I. 🟨,
80', Valincic M. ↓, Heister M. ↑,
80', Loncar S. ↓, Djuric D. ↑,
86', Laca I. ↓, Zdunic B. ↑,
86', Santini I. ↓, Koscevic Z. ↑,
89', Agyemang M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 6 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Prva NL).

Šibenik is Relegated to Prva NL

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 1.

Istra 1961 is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Šibenik has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Istra 1961 is the team to beat.

There will not play in Šibenik: Nizic Z. (Knee Injury) Pozo I. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Istra 1961 won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
11.05.25	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Istra 1961	0:0 ✺
28.04.25	Istra 1961 - Slaven Belupo	1:1 ✺
23.04.25	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Istra 1961 - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TTTWW
- HNK Šibenik
Croatian HNL
10.05.25	Šibenik - Rijeka	0:1 ✺
02.05.25	Varaždin - Šibenik	1:1 ✺
28.04.25	Šibenik - Gorica	0:0 ✺
22.04.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Šibenik	1:2 ✺
17.04.25	Šibenik - Dinamo Zagreb	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
15.03.25	Šibenik - Istra 1961	1:0
14.12.24	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	3:3
27.09.24	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0
29.04.23	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	3:0
24.02.23	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0
23.10.22	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	0:0
12.08.22	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0

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