Match Info

HNL - Round 33

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Gradski stadion Varazdin (Varaždin)

Referee: Lovric Z. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4


	Varaždin		Šibenik

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	4.5
	1.82	3.25	4.6
	1.82	3.25	4.7
	1.87	3.2	4.82
	1.84	3.22	4.77	Watch
	1.83	3	4.8
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.82	3.25	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.76)	3.22 ↓ (3.42)	4.74 ↓ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varaždin
51.2%

Draw
29%

Šibenik
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

27.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

26.6%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varaždin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Šibenik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Šibenik than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	17.6%	35.3%

Varaždin - Šibenik Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Varaždin will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Šibenik will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Varaždin: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Varaždin (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zelenika O. (C) 23. Maglica F. 44. Barac M. 5. Ba L. 30. Alic E. 25. Borsic A. 8. Duvnjak T. 10. Mitrovski D. 22. Mamic L. 15. Vuk M. 9. Dabro M.	40. Filipovic I. (G) 5. Cvek L. 15. Agyemang M. 55. Peric S. 43. Grzan S. 8. Bakic O. 21. Pozo I. 32. Durakovic E. 11. Laca I. 18. Santini I. (C) 22. Kolega T.
Substitutes
11. Antunovic M. 17. Cuic M. 3. Jovanov V. 27. Latkovic A. 26. Mazari A. 20. Mistrafovic D. 13. Mladenovski M. 7. Poldrugac J. 12. Silic J. (G) 4. Skaricic L. 16. Tepsic N. 21. Tomic T. (G)	9. Bozic I. 70. Jakolis A. 36. Kavelj A. 17. Koscevic Z. 27. Kulusic L. 3. Liu A. 7. Majic J. 25. Mohorovic P. (G) 28. Roca I. 30. Zdunic B.
Coaches
Safaric N.	Vidovic R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Santini I. ⚽,
45+1', Pozo I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barac M. ↓, Mladenovski M. ↑,
46', Alic E. ↓, Cuic M. ↑,
46', Dabro M. ↓, Antunovic M. ↑,
57', Cvek L. 🟨,
59', Mamic L. ↓, Latkovic A. ↑,
63', Pozo I. ↓, Kavelj A. ↑,
73', Laca I. ↓, Bozic I. ↑,
73', Santini I. ↓, Kulusic L. ↑,
82', Maglica F. ↓, Poldrugac J. ↑,
87', Bakic O. ↓, Roca I. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Antunovic M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Prva NL).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varaždin won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Varaždin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Varaždin is the team to beat.

There will not play in Varaždin: Marina M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Šibenik: Nizic Z. (Knee Injury) Zuta L. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Varaždin won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:16. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Varaždin won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:11. (average 1.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Varaždin
Croatian HNL
26.04.25	Varaždin - Lokomotiva Zagreb	2:1 ✺
22.04.25	Slaven Belupo - Varaždin	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Rijeka - Varaždin	1:0 ✺
04.04.25	Varaždin - Gorica	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWTLT
- HNK Šibenik
Croatian HNL
28.04.25	Šibenik - Gorica	0:0 ✺
22.04.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Šibenik	1:2 ✺
17.04.25	Šibenik - Dinamo Zagreb	0:4 ✺
11.04.25	Slaven Belupo - Šibenik	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Šibenik - Osijek	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
02.03.25	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:2
29.11.24	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:1
15.09.24	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:0
05.05.23	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:2
04.03.23	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:0
28.10.22	Šibenik - Varaždin	1:2
20.08.22	Varaždin - Šibenik	2:2

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