Match Info

Sergipano - Round 8

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday


	América de Propriá		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
	3.55	2.72	2.15
	3.69	2.72	2.09
	25.00	13.11	1.00	Watch
	3.75	2.63	2.15
	3.8	2.73	2.12
	3.75	2.8	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.26 ↑ (3.46)	4.45 ↑ (2.9)	1.94 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América de Propriá
15.7%

Draw
25.5%

Itabaiana
58.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

31.5%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

32%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América de Propriá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América de Propriá's form might have worsened.

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabaiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América de Propriá than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América de Propriá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Itabaiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

América de Propriá - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Isaque ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Luan Silva ⚽,
44', 0 - 3, Jair ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

América de Propriá is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Itabaiana is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

América de Propriá is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Itabaiana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Itabaiana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Itabaiana could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América de Propriá won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, América de Propriá won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Itabaiana - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.15%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América de Propriá
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.02.26	América de Propriá - Falcon	2:1 ✺
04.02.26	Lagarto - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	América de Propriá - Desportiva Aracaju	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
21.01.26	América de Propriá - Atlético Gloriense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTTTW
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Itabaiana - Dorense	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Itabaiana - Desportiva Aracaju	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Itabaiana - Sergipe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
15.03.25	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	1:0
09.03.25	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	1:1
25.01.25	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	1:1
07.02.24	Itabaiana - América de Propriá	2:0
05.02.23	América de Propriá - Itabaiana	2:2

América de Propriá - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide